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Deutsche Bank forecasts US recession

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The Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation will spark a recession in the United States that begins late next year, Deutsche Bank warned on Tuesday.

The recession call, the first from a major bank, reflects growing concern that the Fed will hit the brakes on the economy so hard that it will inadvertently end the recovery that began just two years ago.

“We no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing. Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession,” Deutsche Bank economists led by Matthew Luzzetti wrote in the report.

That forecast is driven by red-hot inflation, with consumer prices rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. Hopes that inflation would rapidly cool off have been dashed, in part because of the war in Ukraine.

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Inflationary pressures have broadened out, raising concern that the Fed will have to rapidly raise interest rates to get prices under control. Deutsche Bank pointed to how energy and food commodity prices have spiked since Russia invaded Ukraine.
“It is now clear that price stability…is likely to only be achieved through a restrictive monetary policy stance that meaningfully dents demand,” the Deutsche Bank economists wrote.

In other words, the Fed can’t just tap the brakes on the economy. It needs to really slow the economy down.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard said Tuesday the Fed will need to “rapidly” shrink its balance sheet and “methodically” raise interest rates to cool off inflation. “It is of paramount importance to get inflation down,” Brainard said in a speech.

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Although Deutsche Bank cautioned there is “considerable uncertainty” around the exact timing and size of the downturn, it’s now calling for the US economy to shrink during the final quarter of next year and the first quarter of 2024, “consistent with a recession during that time.”
The good news is Deutsche Bank is not forecasting a deep and painful recession like the past two downturns.

Rather, the bank expects a “mild recession,” with unemployment peaking above 5% in 2024. That would still translate to considerable layoffs. During the Great Recession unemployment peaked at far higher levels of 14.7% in 2020 and 10% in 2009.
This coming recession would allow inflation to get back towards the Fed’s target by the end of 2024, Deutsche Bank said.

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“With the unemployment rate receding only slowly following the peak, inflation should continue to moderate, falling to the Fed’s 2% objective in 2025,” Deutsche Bank said.
Dimon sees a slowdown that ‘could easily get worse’
Others have recently warned of a growing probability of a recession, though they have mostly stopped short of predicting an outright downturn.

There is at least a one-in-three chance of a recession in the next 12 months, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN late last month. “Recession risks are uncomfortably high — and moving higher,” Zandi said.

Goldman Sachs has similarly said recessions chances have climbed to as high as 35%.
“The war in Ukraine and the sanctions on Russia, at a minimum, will slow the global economy — and it could easily get worse,” the JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon wrote in his annual shareholder letter Monday, recalling that the 1973 oil embargo sent energy prices skyrocketing and pushed the world into recession.

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, on the other hand, pointed out in a speech last month that there have been instances in the past where the Fed was able to achieve a soft landing: Fighting inflation by raising rates without causing a recession. Powell pointed to 1965, 1984 and 1994 as examples.

However, the Fed chief also conceded there is no guarantee it will be able to pull off that feat this time.
“No one expects that bringing about a soft landing will be straightforward in the current context,” Powell said, “very little is straightforward in the current context.”

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Crime

Rivers state police neutralize four suspects in CDC chairman’s murder

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Rivers State Police Neutralize Suspects in CDC Chairman's Murder

The Rivers State Police Command has neutralized four suspects involved in the murder of Ndidi Livingstone, the CDC Chairman of Mgbuoshimini. The suspects were killed in a crossfire during a police operation. The police also arrested three additional suspects and six others linked to their criminal network.

 

The Rivers State Police Command has successfully neutralized four individuals linked to the murder of Ndidi Livingstone, the Community Development Council (CDC) Chairman of Mgbuoshimini. Livingstone was shot dead on January 13, 2024, in front of his church, Peculiar Faith Ministries, located in Rumueme, Obio/Akpor Local Government Area of Rivers State.

At a press briefing, Commissioner of Police Olatunji Disu provided details of the operation. He revealed that the suspects were killed in a crossfire between the police and the gang members.

 

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Also read: Rivers State police rescue 16 children from alleged trafficker

 

The incident occurred when four men attacked the church, dragged Livingstone out, and shot him multiple times with AK-47 rifles, all while his family and church congregants witnessed the horrific act.

Disu outlined that a team from the FID-Intelligence Response Team and the Rivers State Command conducted a nationwide manhunt for the perpetrators, following a viral video that captured the assassination.

The operation led to the identification and subsequent killing of Peter Daddy Chukwu, the mastermind behind the assassination, in his hideout in Ibusa, Delta State, on April 5, 2024.

The police also arrested three other suspects directly involved in the murder and six additional members of their criminal network.

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The arrested suspects are:

 

1. Nnamdi Emmanuel (alias BYC, 35 years)** from Onicha LGA, Ebonyi State. Emmanuel was identified in the video as the person who shot Livingstone in the foot.

2. John Lucas (34 years)** from Logoro LGA, Bauchi State. Lucas, a dismissed Lance Corporal from the Nigeria Army, was seen in the video firing the fatal shot. He also operated a gang specializing in procuring firearms for hire. The police recovered Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), military uniforms, five Skyrun refrigerators, and the Black Highlander vehicle used during the murder from him.

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3. Adebayo Adebayo (48 years)** from Ado Ekiti LGA, Ekiti State. Adebayo, a dismissed Sergeant from the Nigeria Army in 2019, was recruited by Lucas for the assassination. He was seen in the video wearing a special forces shirt and was apprehended while working as a Chief Security Officer at a Waste Management Company in Kwale, Delta State.

CP Disu praised the relentless efforts of the police in tracking down the suspects and emphasized the commitment to bringing all those involved in the crime to justice.

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Religion

Apostle Suleman reveals 3-year Jet servicing ordeal and divine message on forgiveness

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Apostle Johnson Suleman Private Jet Service Story

Apostle Johnson Suleman shared his frustration over a three-year ordeal with his private jet servicing, revealing a divine message on forgiveness.

 

Apostle Johnson Suleman of the Omega Fire Ministry has disclosed a personal struggle involving his private jet during a recent church service.

Suleman recounted how he faced frustration with the servicing of his jet, which he claimed was deliberately neglected by the service providers who wanted to pressure him into selling it.

 

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According to Suleman, after sending the jet for servicing, the maintenance team refused to work on it, despite repeated attempts to contact them.

Over a period of three years, Suleman alleged that they allowed the plane’s parts to exceed their recommended time frame, which is crucial for safe operation.

Suleman described his ordeal of repeatedly trying to get the jet serviced, only to face resistance from the service providers who were reportedly interested in buying the jet.

This situation caused him significant distress, as he struggled to get the necessary repairs done and faced mounting aviation costs.

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During this period, Suleman said he received a divine message while praying. He was instructed to forgive the individuals who had frustrated his efforts, with a warning that unresolved bitterness could jeopardize his spiritual well-being.

The cleric expressed that the Holy Spirit revealed to him that his inability to forgive could impact his chances of entering heaven.

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Eventually, after he chose to forgive, Suleman noted that the service providers contacted him, expressing their regret and readiness to complete the servicing.

He emphasized the emotional and spiritual lessons he learned from the experience, highlighting the importance of forgiveness.

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Education

Nigeria to integrate technology in education, says VP Shettima

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Technology Integration in Nigeria Education

Vice President Kashim Shettima announced plans to integrate technology into Nigeria’s education system to enhance learning outcomes, inspired by India’s success with KYAN smart class solutions.

 

Vice President Kashim Shettima has announced that the Federal Government plans to integrate technology into Nigeria’s education system to improve learning outcomes.

During a meeting with the World Bank Nigeria team at the Presidential Villa in Abuja, Shettima outlined the government’s commitment to addressing human capacity and resource challenges within the education sector.

 

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Shettima assured that President Bola Tinubu is dedicated to leveraging technological advancements to add value to the country.

He drew inspiration from India’s use of KYAN smart class solutions, which teach 50,000 pupils in rural areas, and expressed confidence that similar innovations could transform Nigeria’s education system.

“The integration of technology will significantly upgrade our education system,” Shettima said. He also stressed the need for a comprehensive education reform plan, including better infrastructure, teacher training, and technological implementation.

 

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Shettima emphasized that the federal government is committed to driving these changes, but success will require the cooperation of all stakeholders, including state governors.

Dr. Ndiame Diop, World Bank’s Country Director for Nigeria, highlighted the bank’s focus on improving governance, health, and education through its HOPE series projects.

These initiatives aim to reform governance processes, primary healthcare, and education facilities across Nigeria, with an emphasis on human capital development.

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