APC ADC NDC 2027 dynamics intensify as major defections and party crises reshape Nigeria’s presidential race ahead of the next election

Three political parties are emerging as likely frontrunners ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election following the expiration of the deadline for political parties to submit membership registers to the Independent National Electoral Commission.

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The deadline elapsed at midnight on May 10, amid growing political realignments that have dramatically altered the country’s opposition landscape ahead of the next general election.

The ruling All Progressives Congress, the African Democratic Congress and the New Democratic Congress are now widely seen as the strongest political platforms heading into the 2027 contest.

The development raises the possibility of another fierce three-way presidential battle involving familiar political figures who contested the 2023 election, albeit on different party platforms.

In the 2023 presidential election, Bola Tinubu contested on the platform of the APC, while former Vice President Atiku Abubakar represented the Peoples Democratic Party and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi flew the flag of the Labour Party.

Four years later, both the PDP and LP have been weakened by prolonged internal crises that have triggered major defections by leading political figures.

Atiku Abubakar has moved to the ADC, while Peter Obi has joined the NDC as part of broader political realignments expected to shape the 2027 election.

Peter Obi has publicly declared his determination to remain on the ballot in 2027 and has also indicated a willingness to serve only a single term if elected president.

The NDC’s decision to zone its presidential ticket to the South has further strengthened speculation that Peter Obi could emerge as the party’s candidate.

Under the arrangement proposed by the NDC, the presidency would rotate to the North in 2031. Former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso is believed to have accepted the arrangement and is widely tipped to emerge as Peter Obi’s running mate.

Within the ADC, competition for the presidential ticket is intensifying as Atiku Abubakar, former Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi and businessman Mohamed Hayatu-Deen have all reportedly shown interest in contesting.

However, the ADC has yet to clarify whether it intends to zone its presidential ticket.

The PDP’s future ahead of the election remains uncertain as the party continues to battle a deepening leadership crisis that has fractured its national structure.

The party is currently divided between factions aligned with Federal Capital Territory Minister Nyesom Wike and Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde.

Both camps remain locked in a prolonged struggle over the authentic leadership of the party.

A recent Supreme Court judgment reportedly upheld the suspension of Wike ally Sam Anyanwu as PDP national secretary.

Despite the ruling, the INEC website as of May 10, 2026, still listed Abdul Rahman Mohamed as national chairman and Sam Anyanwu as national secretary of the PDP, both figures associated with the Wike faction.

Political observers said the continued listing suggests that INEC may still be awaiting further legal clarity before effecting any changes to the party’s recognised leadership structure.

INEC’s handling of the PDP situation has also drawn attention following its swift removal of former Senate President David Mark and former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola as national chairman and secretary of the ADC after a separate Supreme Court ruling.

A PDP source told Daily Sun that the commission’s refusal to make immediate changes to the PDP leadership despite the court ruling is being interpreted within the party as a sign that INEC is waiting for additional clarification before taking further action.

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The unfolding political shifts are expected to shape alliances, defections and campaign strategies in what analysts predict could become one of Nigeria’s most fiercely contested elections in recent history.