Nigeria and other African nations stand to gain from the Middle East energy crisis, as oil and LNG buyers seek stable, cost-effective alternatives

Nigeria has emerged as the African country most likely to benefit from the ongoing Middle East energy crisis, according to energy analysts. Other African nations poised to gain include Libya, Angola, Gabon, Mozambique, Namibia, and Tanzania.

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The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global energy supply, removing approximately 8 million barrels of oil per day and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the market.

As a result, European and Asian buyers are increasingly turning to African producers, attracted by lower insurance costs and more stable delivery routes compared to volatile regions like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

The crisis has pushed Brent crude prices up by more than 50%, reaching around $110 per barrel, while the U.S. stock market has seen a nearly $4 trillion loss in value.

Analysts say Africa’s energy sector stands to benefit in the long term, with Nigeria at the forefront. The continent’s LNG capacity is expected to grow from around 80 million tons per year in 2025 to over 175 million tons by 2040.

Sub-Saharan LNG exports are projected to expand significantly by 2034, driven by major projects in Nigeria, Mozambique, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Cameroon.

Notable projects include TotalEnergies’ $20 billion LNG initiative in Mozambique, restarted after a five-year security-related pause, with production expected to commence in 2029.

Eni is developing a floating LNG gas field in Mozambique, with partial production already underway and more expected by 2028.

ExxonMobil is leading a $30 billion LNG project in Mozambique slated for production between 2030 and 2031.

The global energy crunch is also reviving long-delayed African initiatives such as the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline.

The project, which will transport gas from Nigeria through Niger and Algeria to Europe, aims to deliver 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually by 2027, providing Europe with an alternative to Russian energy supplies.

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Experts conclude that Africa is steadily becoming a critical player in the global energy market, with Nigeria strategically positioned to capitalise on the current supply disruptions and long-term investment opportunities.