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Opinion

Gainers and losers of Trump’s invasion threat…

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Trump

Bola BOLAWOLE

Nigeria-US diplomacy intensifies as political and military tensions rise, threatening stability in West Africa and the wider international order

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“A 17th century English author, diplomat, and politician, Sir Henry Wotton (1568 – 1639), was quoted as describing, in 1604, an ambassador or diplomat as ‘an honest gentleman sent to lie abroad for the good of his country’”

Also read: Abuja airport runway incident triggers brief disruption

“How can an honest gentleman also tell lies?”

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“That is the irony of it – but the statement is factual. It is exactly what diplomats do. Sir Henry spoke from the two angles of theory and practice”

“That was many centuries ago! I am sure events, especially civilization, must have overtaken such crudity”

“On the contrary! Sir Henry’s classical statement still holds true today. If a diplomat speaks and you immediately know what he means and where he is heading, then, he is a novice in the art”

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“Really? We are admonished to call a spade a spade…!”

“Not in the world of diplomacy! And not as it pertains to relations between countries in the international political system. Are you aware that diplomats also spy for their country and even organize assassinations for its good?”

“L’o-ba-tan! And you call that ‘good’?”

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“The world of diplomacy is trickish, delicate and deadly; strewn with all manner of dangerous ups-and-downs. Are you aware that Sir Henry paid dearly for his witty and satirical statement?“

“How?“

“The hegemon of his time, King James the First, heard of it and was sorely displeased. He caused Sir Henry to be disgraced!”

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“That is serious, for such an innocuous statement?“

“He was even lucky! Some get killed for gaffes more trifling than that…”

“Then the world of diplomacy is a dangerous one”

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“It is! When you are close to the corridors of power, you must be very careful with every statement and action of yours. Here in Nigeria, one top brass recently failed to, and he paid dearly for it, dragging some other unlucky folks along with him…”

“And who can that be?”

“Were you not in this country when there was a rumoured coup or no coup…”

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“Oh! Yes, yes, yes…”

“Oh-ooo! Where is the person who made the confirmation? Tell me, is he still sitting pretty in his office?

“I seeee! But he tried to manage the situation very well…”

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“Not well enough to the pleasure of the hegemon. They must have reasoned that he was not diplomatic enough…”

“You mean he did not lie enough?

“Exactly! Diplomats are masters of doublespeak, deceit, and subterfuge…”

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“All for the good of their country…”

“You are a fast learner! Don’t you see how America has thrown the whole of Nigeria into confusion? A statement of a few words has kept Nigerians guessing, with Nigerian leaders running from pillar to post…”

“Even me, I am worried! We are not talking here about Liberia or Sierra Leone! The USA is the military hegemony of the world. I understand even the terrorists have started fleeing Nigeria!”

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“Who dash monkey banana! But I, for one, am not worried. Those who are worried are those who took the words of President Donald Trump at their face value…”

“But he couldn’t have been more emphatic: Stop the genocide of Nigerian Christians or else…”

”You mean you don’t want the genocide to stop?“

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“What of the dire consequences of foreign invasion? We have seen what the USA did everywhere they invaded. I think we should be left alone to tackle the problem ourselves”

“I am sorry, you will not! You cannot be trusted to do the needful. Since 1999, you have been left alone, but what have you done? Besides, stopping genocide is the least of the reasons why the USA will want to invade Nigeria, if it must. “

“Now you are getting my point! The USA can stop genocide in Nigeria simply by sneezing, just like they have done. They need not invade…”

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“Donald Trump has become France’s Napoleon Bonaparte of our time? In his own days, it is written that when Napoleon sneezes, the whole of Europe catches cold!“

“So, you can see that they have a hidden agenda and ulterior motives if they still invade. Have you heard that the Yankees are after our resources? “

“I have heard, but that is not the reason…”

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“They are angry at some of our policies and utterances…”

“I know, but that is not the reason…”

“Our membership of BRICS ails them…”

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”Maybe, but that still is not the reason…”

”We spoke in support of Hamas, Iran..”

“Diplomats and world leaders schooled in the art of diplomacy sell dummies. You never get to know where they are coming from until they get to where they are going…”

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“I am lost! Can it be Peter Obi that went to the US to engineer Trump against Nigeria?“

“ That one na small fry! America can use him, but he can never use America. Don’t compare sleep with death…”

“I really cannot understand why a superpower will flex muscles with a poor country like Nigeria; ordinary AK-47, we cannot produce locally…”

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”But don’t you call yourself the ‘Giant of Africa’? Giant with clay feet! And don’t you say you are oil-rich? Wahala knocks on your door and you have started singing like a canary!”

“Shakara oloje, as Fela called it, is different from a real situation of trepidation that faces us now.”

“Whether you like it or not, America is coming; except they find a better way of serving their core national interest…”

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“And what is that? “

“You think it was for fun that the hegemon here got really angry that a top military brass publicly and officially confirmed that there were rumblings in the military?”

“He said there was minor misdemeanor over failed exams, lack of promotion, and stagnant career…”

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“And what fuels discontentment and grumblings in the military more than those?’

“I see! I never thought of it that way…”

”Assuming the masterminds were not caught before they could strike, think of the configuration… “

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“Mostly Northern military officers, mostly Moslems as well! And against a sitting Yoruba president. That would be ‘June 12’ Part Two”

“Now add that to the Sahel states of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso where the military are in power via coup and have switched allegiance from the Western orbit to the ideological camp of Russia and China…”

“I am getting the point, but…”

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“Wait! A northern, Muslim military president in Nigeria, joining forces with the military leaders of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso; configure it! Nigeria is the ‘Giant of Africa’; one of its largest economies, and the undisputed hegemon of the West African sub-region…”

“Whaaoh! The picture is getting clearer! America will never allow that…”

“But it nearly happened! That some Nigerian military officers could even conjecture it is alarming…”

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“Which is the more reason Trump should deliver massive help to Nigeria…”

“The one America delivered in the past, what happened to it? Corruption, compromise, conflict of interest, and incompetence ensured that everything went down the drains. What is more, the USA and the entire West now face existential threat to their economic and political interests in West Africa. I am sure you know coup can be contagious?

“Yes, which was why ECOWAS sanctioned the coupists, but instead of retracing their footsteps, those ones escalated the matter by quitting…”

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“What message did that send to the US and the West? That Nigeria and ECOWAS are toothless bulldogs! It would have been better if ECOWAS had not barked at all. In the good old days of Liberia and Sierra Leone, what do you think ‘smoking gun’ Nigeria would have done?“

“Oh my! We would have wasted no time to force-feed them with Pax Nigeriana!”

“And you think the US and the West will sit idly by and watch the theatrics of the military leaders of the Sahel states, especially Ibrahim Traoro of Burkina Faso?”

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“As sovereign states the Sahel states have a right to the leadership they desire…”

”On paper, yes; but in the realpolitik of the international political system as we have it today, strong nations have their way while weak nations suffer their fate”

“There is a new dimension to the matter. With China and Russia backing the Sahel states, the West African sub-region may soon become the theatre of war between the superpowers…”

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“In that event, the US needs a military base close to the theatre of war…”

“Will Nigeria offer one? “

“If Nigeria does not, splinter-nations from Nigeria will…”

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‘”You mean it can get that serious? “

“Oh! So you think it is a laughing matter? The US predicted that NIgeria would disintegrate 10 years ago. The likelihood is that they have been on the drawing board since then, biding their time…“

“And you think the time is ripe for them to strike now? “

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“Something like it! Biafrans want to go; Yoruba want to exit; the Middle Belt is tired of Arewa; even the Hausa want to overthrow Fulani suzerainty…”

“So what you are saying is that it is no longer a question of whether but when…”

”And also of how: Czechoslovakia or Yugoslavia? America’s core interests are two-fold: To prevent the contagion of military coups spreading to Nigeria; and to grab a launch pad to reverse what it sees as the madness of the Sahel states. Other reasons are mere addendums”

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Also read: Abuja airport runway incident triggers brief disruption

“Complex; so complex! Looked at closely, isn’t it Buhari’s CPC (Congress of Progressive Change) that has brought Trump’s CPC (Country of Particular Concern) upon us in this country?”

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Opinion

Tegbe’s 24-Hour Energy Zones and the Shift From Megawatts to Money

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Tegbe

 By Sufuyan Ojeifo,

There is a point at which a country’s electricity problem ceases to be merely an electricity problem. It becomes a problem of economic geography.

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Also read: Everton Celebrates Nigeria’s 66th Independence With Football Legends

Where can factories operate with confidence? Where can businesses plan beyond the next appearance of a generator? Where can hospitals, schools, technology companies, markets and households begin to organise their lives around the reasonable expectation that electricity will be there?

This is the thinking behind the latest initiative from the Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, to develop what the Federal Government calls Energy Zones – defined corridors where homes, businesses and industries could receive stable, 24-hour electricity.

The proposed zones cover the Lagos axis, the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano corridor and the Enugu-Port Harcourt corridor. Tegbe’s latest move is a meeting with selected electricity distribution companies to begin working through what it would take to make the idea real.

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At first glance, it sounds like another promise of uninterrupted electricity in a country that has heard too many such promises. However, there is something more consequential in the architecture of the proposal.

Tegbe is asking Nigerians to look at the power problem differently.

For years, the national conversation has been dominated by generation. How many megawatts are being produced? How much can the transmission grid carry? How many generating plants are working? These are important questions. But electricity does not become useful simply because it has been generated.

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It must travel. It must be received. It must be distributed. And ultimately, somebody must be able to use it. That last part has often been treated as the end of the conversation when, in reality, it is where the economic value of electricity begins.

Tegbe has put the point plainly. The constraint is not limited to generation and transmission; it also includes how much electricity can be taken up and delivered at the distribution end.

The proposed Energy Zones are intended to address precisely that gap while improving commercial demand and the revenue performance of the distribution companies.

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There is an important idea here.

Nigeria does not necessarily have to wait for every weakness in the electricity value chain to be solved simultaneously before beginning to create pockets of reliability.

A country of more than 200 million people, with enormous differences in industrial activity, population density and commercial demand, may have to proceed through carefully selected economic corridors while the wider system is repaired.

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This is not an argument for abandoning the national grid. It is an argument for making the grid more economically purposeful.

The three corridors selected by the Ministry are revealing. Lagos and its adjoining industrial axis represent perhaps the country’s most concentrated commercial and industrial demand.

The Abuja-Kaduna-Kano corridor connects the political capital with major commercial and industrial centres in the North. Enugu-Port Harcourt links important commercial, manufacturing and energy-producing communities in the South-East and South-South.

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These are not simply lines on a power map. They are lines on Nigeria’s economic map. That distinction matters.

For too long, Nigerians have experienced electricity largely as a household inconvenience. The light goes off. The generator comes on. A business buys diesel. A manufacturer factors self-generation into production costs. A hospital makes contingency arrangements.

A young entrepreneur learns, often painfully, that the real price of electricity is not what appears on the bill but what it costs to keep the business alive when the supply fails.

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A reliable electricity corridor changes that equation.

If a factory knows that a particular industrial cluster has dependable power, investment decisions begin to change.

If a commercial district can plan around predictable electricity, operating costs become easier to manage.

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If businesses can depend on supply for most of the day, generators can move from being the first line of defence to being what they were always supposed to be: backup.

This is where Tegbe’s technocratic instincts may prove significant.

His background is not that of a career power-sector operator. His professional experience has largely been in consulting, fiscal and economic reform, institutional transformation and advisory work. That background has been visible in his early approach to the ministry – diagnosis, audits, financial questions, infrastructure bottlenecks, and attempts to identify where one part of the system is preventing another from functioning properly.

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His Energy Zones proposal fits that pattern. It treats the electricity market less as a single machine waiting for one dramatic repair and more as a system of interconnected constraints that can be isolated, diagnosed and addressed.

Tegbe had already identified the three corridors as priorities for grid stabilisation, with technical audits intended to establish the condition of critical infrastructure. The latest engagement with DisCos suggests that the idea is now moving beyond technical diagnosis towards the more difficult question of how distribution will work within those corridors.

That is where the hard work begins.

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A 24-hour power zone cannot be created by a press statement. It requires generation that is available when needed, transmission capacity that can carry it, distribution infrastructure capable of receiving it, transformers and feeders that can withstand the load, metering that properly captures consumption, customers willing and able to pay, and a commercial structure in which the various participants have an incentive to keep the system working.

It also requires protection. Vandalism and energy theft do not respect administrative boundaries. Neither do faulty equipment, unpaid bills or poor collection practices. Tegbe himself has acknowledged that the sector’s problems reinforce one another. Weak collections affect the market. Market weakness affects maintenance and gas payments. Unreliable supply in turn depresses collections.

This is why the Energy Zone experiment, if it is to succeed, must be judged by more than the number of hours electricity is available.

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The real test will be whether reliability begins to produce economic consequences. Does industrial output increase? Do businesses spend less on self-generation? Does investment respond? Do DisCos collect more because customers are receiving a service they can trust? Does the government recover enough value from improved commercial activity to justify further infrastructure investment?

Those are the questions that should eventually accompany the glossy language of 24-hour power.

And there is another question that Tegbe and the Federal Government will have to confront: what happens outside the zones?

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Nigeria cannot become a collection of electrically privileged corridors surrounded by communities waiting indefinitely for their turn.

The logic of concentrating investment in high-demand areas can be defended economically, especially if the resulting commercial activity strengthens the wider electricity market.

But the strategy will ultimately have to demonstrate how successful zones become stepping stones towards broader reliability.

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That is the difference between an experiment and a system.

There is also a danger in admiring the architecture of reform from the comfort of an office.

It has to be said here that the statement issued by the minister’s media aide was long on ambition and conspicuously short on the details that matter. No timeline. No capacity targets. No specific investment figures. It is the kind of announcement that has, historically, been the precursor to nothing at all.

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So Nigerians should watch the idea with interest, but also with the healthy scepticism that comes from decades of promises about electricity.

The minister deserves a measure of credit for at least diagnosing an important part of the illness.

For once, the conversation has shifted from the head to the feet – from generation to distribution, from megawatts to money.

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At the same time, the Nigerian people have been given blueprints before. They have learned to admire the drawings while the building crumbles.

The Energy Zones remain a proposal. The government has not yet announced the detailed capacity requirements, implementation timetable or precise infrastructure investments that would make 24-hour supply possible.

That is not necessarily a fatal flaw. It may simply mean the idea is still being worked out.

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But it does mean that the language of 24-hour power should be treated as an aspiration until it is matched by the machinery of implementation.

Yet the proposal deserves attention because it reflects a potentially important shift in the way the power problem is being conceived.

Nigeria may not fix its electricity crisis in one heroic sweep. It may have to build reliability corridor by corridor, demand centre by demand centre, and economic cluster by economic cluster.

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There is nothing inherently glamorous about such work. It is engineering, finance, regulation, distribution and relentless attention to the weak link in the chain. But perhaps that is precisely the point.

The country has spent decades waiting for the great national electricity breakthrough.

Tegbe’s emerging approach suggests something less dramatic and potentially more practical: make a few economically critical parts of the system work properly, learn from them, strengthen the model, and expand it.

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The success of that approach will ultimately be measured not in speeches or megawatts, but in what Nigerians can do with the electricity when it arrives.

Does the factory run a second shift? Does the business hire more workers? Does the hospital keep its equipment running through the night? Does the young entrepreneur stop budgeting for diesel and start budgeting for growth?

Also read: Everton Celebrates Nigeria’s 66th Independence With Football Legends

That is where the real power story begins. And that is the standard against which Tegbe’s Energy Zones should ultimately be judged: not by whether 24-hour power sounds impressive in a press release, but by whether the lights stay on long enough for Nigerians to build something with them.

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