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Gainers and losers of Trump’s invasion threat…

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Trump

Bola BOLAWOLE

Nigeria-US diplomacy intensifies as political and military tensions rise, threatening stability in West Africa and the wider international order

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“A 17th century English author, diplomat, and politician, Sir Henry Wotton (1568 – 1639), was quoted as describing, in 1604, an ambassador or diplomat as ‘an honest gentleman sent to lie abroad for the good of his country’”

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“How can an honest gentleman also tell lies?”

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“That is the irony of it – but the statement is factual. It is exactly what diplomats do. Sir Henry spoke from the two angles of theory and practice”

“That was many centuries ago! I am sure events, especially civilization, must have overtaken such crudity”

“On the contrary! Sir Henry’s classical statement still holds true today. If a diplomat speaks and you immediately know what he means and where he is heading, then, he is a novice in the art”

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“Really? We are admonished to call a spade a spade…!”

“Not in the world of diplomacy! And not as it pertains to relations between countries in the international political system. Are you aware that diplomats also spy for their country and even organize assassinations for its good?”

“L’o-ba-tan! And you call that ‘good’?”

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“The world of diplomacy is trickish, delicate and deadly; strewn with all manner of dangerous ups-and-downs. Are you aware that Sir Henry paid dearly for his witty and satirical statement?“

“How?“

“The hegemon of his time, King James the First, heard of it and was sorely displeased. He caused Sir Henry to be disgraced!”

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“That is serious, for such an innocuous statement?“

“He was even lucky! Some get killed for gaffes more trifling than that…”

“Then the world of diplomacy is a dangerous one”

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“It is! When you are close to the corridors of power, you must be very careful with every statement and action of yours. Here in Nigeria, one top brass recently failed to, and he paid dearly for it, dragging some other unlucky folks along with him…”

“And who can that be?”

“Were you not in this country when there was a rumoured coup or no coup…”

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“Oh! Yes, yes, yes…”

“Oh-ooo! Where is the person who made the confirmation? Tell me, is he still sitting pretty in his office?

“I seeee! But he tried to manage the situation very well…”

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“Not well enough to the pleasure of the hegemon. They must have reasoned that he was not diplomatic enough…”

“You mean he did not lie enough?

“Exactly! Diplomats are masters of doublespeak, deceit, and subterfuge…”

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“All for the good of their country…”

“You are a fast learner! Don’t you see how America has thrown the whole of Nigeria into confusion? A statement of a few words has kept Nigerians guessing, with Nigerian leaders running from pillar to post…”

“Even me, I am worried! We are not talking here about Liberia or Sierra Leone! The USA is the military hegemony of the world. I understand even the terrorists have started fleeing Nigeria!”

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“Who dash monkey banana! But I, for one, am not worried. Those who are worried are those who took the words of President Donald Trump at their face value…”

“But he couldn’t have been more emphatic: Stop the genocide of Nigerian Christians or else…”

”You mean you don’t want the genocide to stop?“

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“What of the dire consequences of foreign invasion? We have seen what the USA did everywhere they invaded. I think we should be left alone to tackle the problem ourselves”

“I am sorry, you will not! You cannot be trusted to do the needful. Since 1999, you have been left alone, but what have you done? Besides, stopping genocide is the least of the reasons why the USA will want to invade Nigeria, if it must. “

“Now you are getting my point! The USA can stop genocide in Nigeria simply by sneezing, just like they have done. They need not invade…”

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“Donald Trump has become France’s Napoleon Bonaparte of our time? In his own days, it is written that when Napoleon sneezes, the whole of Europe catches cold!“

“So, you can see that they have a hidden agenda and ulterior motives if they still invade. Have you heard that the Yankees are after our resources? “

“I have heard, but that is not the reason…”

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“They are angry at some of our policies and utterances…”

“I know, but that is not the reason…”

“Our membership of BRICS ails them…”

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”Maybe, but that still is not the reason…”

”We spoke in support of Hamas, Iran..”

“Diplomats and world leaders schooled in the art of diplomacy sell dummies. You never get to know where they are coming from until they get to where they are going…”

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“I am lost! Can it be Peter Obi that went to the US to engineer Trump against Nigeria?“

“ That one na small fry! America can use him, but he can never use America. Don’t compare sleep with death…”

“I really cannot understand why a superpower will flex muscles with a poor country like Nigeria; ordinary AK-47, we cannot produce locally…”

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”But don’t you call yourself the ‘Giant of Africa’? Giant with clay feet! And don’t you say you are oil-rich? Wahala knocks on your door and you have started singing like a canary!”

“Shakara oloje, as Fela called it, is different from a real situation of trepidation that faces us now.”

“Whether you like it or not, America is coming; except they find a better way of serving their core national interest…”

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“And what is that? “

“You think it was for fun that the hegemon here got really angry that a top military brass publicly and officially confirmed that there were rumblings in the military?”

“He said there was minor misdemeanor over failed exams, lack of promotion, and stagnant career…”

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“And what fuels discontentment and grumblings in the military more than those?’

“I see! I never thought of it that way…”

”Assuming the masterminds were not caught before they could strike, think of the configuration… “

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“Mostly Northern military officers, mostly Moslems as well! And against a sitting Yoruba president. That would be ‘June 12’ Part Two”

“Now add that to the Sahel states of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso where the military are in power via coup and have switched allegiance from the Western orbit to the ideological camp of Russia and China…”

“I am getting the point, but…”

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“Wait! A northern, Muslim military president in Nigeria, joining forces with the military leaders of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso; configure it! Nigeria is the ‘Giant of Africa’; one of its largest economies, and the undisputed hegemon of the West African sub-region…”

“Whaaoh! The picture is getting clearer! America will never allow that…”

“But it nearly happened! That some Nigerian military officers could even conjecture it is alarming…”

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“Which is the more reason Trump should deliver massive help to Nigeria…”

“The one America delivered in the past, what happened to it? Corruption, compromise, conflict of interest, and incompetence ensured that everything went down the drains. What is more, the USA and the entire West now face existential threat to their economic and political interests in West Africa. I am sure you know coup can be contagious?

“Yes, which was why ECOWAS sanctioned the coupists, but instead of retracing their footsteps, those ones escalated the matter by quitting…”

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“What message did that send to the US and the West? That Nigeria and ECOWAS are toothless bulldogs! It would have been better if ECOWAS had not barked at all. In the good old days of Liberia and Sierra Leone, what do you think ‘smoking gun’ Nigeria would have done?“

“Oh my! We would have wasted no time to force-feed them with Pax Nigeriana!”

“And you think the US and the West will sit idly by and watch the theatrics of the military leaders of the Sahel states, especially Ibrahim Traoro of Burkina Faso?”

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“As sovereign states the Sahel states have a right to the leadership they desire…”

”On paper, yes; but in the realpolitik of the international political system as we have it today, strong nations have their way while weak nations suffer their fate”

“There is a new dimension to the matter. With China and Russia backing the Sahel states, the West African sub-region may soon become the theatre of war between the superpowers…”

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“In that event, the US needs a military base close to the theatre of war…”

“Will Nigeria offer one? “

“If Nigeria does not, splinter-nations from Nigeria will…”

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‘”You mean it can get that serious? “

“Oh! So you think it is a laughing matter? The US predicted that NIgeria would disintegrate 10 years ago. The likelihood is that they have been on the drawing board since then, biding their time…“

“And you think the time is ripe for them to strike now? “

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“Something like it! Biafrans want to go; Yoruba want to exit; the Middle Belt is tired of Arewa; even the Hausa want to overthrow Fulani suzerainty…”

“So what you are saying is that it is no longer a question of whether but when…”

”And also of how: Czechoslovakia or Yugoslavia? America’s core interests are two-fold: To prevent the contagion of military coups spreading to Nigeria; and to grab a launch pad to reverse what it sees as the madness of the Sahel states. Other reasons are mere addendums”

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Also read: Abuja airport runway incident triggers brief disruption

“Complex; so complex! Looked at closely, isn’t it Buhari’s CPC (Congress of Progressive Change) that has brought Trump’s CPC (Country of Particular Concern) upon us in this country?”

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Opinion

Are owls evil birds?

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owls

By Bolanle Bolawole,

 

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Sometime this year, I was alerted to the presence of an owl perching on the PHCN line overlooking my apartment. And so what, I asked! The response I got shocked me: Don’t you know that owls are evil birds? I quickly jumped out of bed! I really never knew anything about owls. I went to my window and saw it. I began to “bind and cast.” I followed this up by picking up a stone and going after it. It flew away before I could reach it. Days later, the owl appeared again. I went after it again with prayer and action. Again, it flew away before I could reach it. Every night afterwards I checked the PHCN line before going to bed and whenever I woke up in the night. There was no sight of it. Still, I prayed.

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Not long afterwards, a classmate and friend who had suffered a stroke earlier, died. He was 69. Closely afterwards, my in-law, a mentor, died at the age of 89.

Then real tragedy struck in the same month with the death of his daughter and my niece, at 54. In July alone a chorister in my church lost her father who was 65.

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My panel beater lost a 14-year-old child; a pastor friend died at a relatively young age, and then another schoolmate and professional colleague also passed on at the age of 67. More deaths of colleagues and known faces have since followed.

Are owls evil birds? Are they the harbingers or messengers of death? This is what Google has to say about this mysterious bird: “No, owls are not evil birds; they are simply wild, nocturnal animals fulfilling a natural role in the environment.”

But owls, all the same, have a really bad reputation. Their nocturnal lifestyle is one. They hunt and move around in the dark and people historically associate darkness with fear and the unknown. Owls also fly silently: Their specialized feathers let them fly completely silently, causing them to appear suddenly out of nowhere.

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They also have human-like facial features, with their forward-facing eyes giving them an intense, penetrating gaze that can feel uncanny or unsettling. Owl’s eerie sounds, strange screeches, clicks, and hoots in the dead of night have also fueled ghost stories for centuries.

There are also a lot of cultural myths and superstitions pertaining to owls. Many cultures around the world historically view owls as bad omens or messengers of death.

“In general, owls are viewed as harbingers of bad luck, ill health, or death. The belief is widespread even today.” According to Wikipedia, this belief cuts across the globe. Among the Kikuyu of Kenya, it was believed that owls were harbingers of death. If one saw an owl or heard its hoot, someone was going to die.

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In the Americas, the culture of the Uto-Aztec tribe, the Hopi, has “taboos surrounding owls, which are associated with sorcery and other evils. The Aztecs and Maya, along with other natives of Mesoamerica, considered the owl a symbol of death and destruction. In fact, the Aztec god of death, Mictlantecuhtli, was often depicted with owls. There is an old saying in Mexico that is still in use: ‘When the owl cries/sings, the Indian dies’.

“The Popol Vuh, a Mayan religious text, describes owls as messengers of Xibalba (the Mayan “Place of Fright”). The belief that owls are messengers and harbingers of the dark powers is also found among the Hočągara (Winnebago) of Wisconsin. When in earlier days the Hočągara committed the sin of killing enemies while they were within the sanctuary of the chief’s lodge, an owl appeared and spoke to them in the voice of a human, saying, ‘From now on the Hočągara will have no luck.’ This marked the beginning of the decline of the tribe. An owl appeared to Glory of the Morning, the only female chief of the Hočąk nation, and uttered her name. Soon afterwards she died.

“People often allude to the reputation of owls as bearers of supernatural danger when they tell misbehaving children, ‘the owls will get you.’ Also, in the Cherokee culture, as well as many other Native American cultures, owls are a very bad omen. It is said that if you are outside in broad daylight and an owl flies over your head, a family member or loved one would die within the coming week. In the Middle East, Arab mythology sees owls as bad omens.”

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Some other cultures, however, see owls in a different light i.e. as a wise creature (for example, Hinduism in India.) In Japan, souvenir shops display little owl figurines that are supposed to bring good luck.

The Japanese word for owl is ‘fukurou’, and the first part of the word (‘fuku’) can be written with the same character as ‘luck’ or the whole word can literally be written as ‘no suffering/troubles’.”

So, what is it really about owls? It would appear owls signify different strokes for different people – and for different reasons as well. Superstition exists everywhere. And every superstitious belief has a logic behind it.

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Most of the time, this is weaved around the fear of the unknown and the recoil from what Cicero, a Roman philosopher, called the ultimate evil.

Cicero, also noted for his oratorical gift, defined the Latin term “summum malum” as “the highest evil” and “summum bonum” as “the highest good” in his foundational ethical treatise titled “On the Ends of Good and Evil”.

He reportedly used these concepts to compare how different ancient Greek schools such as the Stoics, Epicureans, and Peripatetics defined the ultimate goal of human life (summum bonum) vis-a-vis what they sought most to avoid (summum malum). Cicero, however, merely built on the thoughts of earlier ancient Greek philosophers like Plato and Aristotle.

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Thomas Hobbes, another Western philosopher and famous author of the “Leviathan” (1651) rejected the idea of a universal “summum bonum” due to conflicting human desires, but agreed that a definitive “summum malum” did exist: the fear of violent death.

What is certain, and which is known to all civilizations, is that the traffic between heaven and earth is never ending; and that this is as sure as day follows night.

As Orlando Owoh crooned, just as babies are born on a daily basis, so also do people die – owl or not owl. Were the universe to be rid of owls, people would still die! All the same because I am not Japanese, owls are not the kind of birds I love to see!

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Robbing Peter to pay Paul: A lose-lose situation

Can these figures be correct? Since I came across them on the internet, I have not seen a rebuttal from any quarters. So, since silence is said to mean consent, I want to assume that the figures are factual – until the contrary is proven.

The disturbing information goes thus: “Six geo-political zones’ contribution to the VAT pool and (what each of them) received (in return) in half-year January -June 2026): 1. South-west contributed N2.16trn but received N691.56bn (31.99%). 2. South-south contributed N880.58bn but received N429.99bn (48.83%). 3. North-central contributed N302.81bn but received N350.17bn (115.64%).

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4. North-west contributed N205.52bn but received N384.56bn (187.11%). 5. North-east contributed N152.82bn but received N285.70bn (186.95%). 6. The South-east contributed N79.27bn but received N230.89bn (291.28%).”

Are you not surprised that the South-east zone contributed the least but received the highest, percentage-wise? This means that a region always screaming “marginalization” is the one actually marginalizing others!

All the three zones in the North received more than they contributed; meaning that, like the South-east, they benefit from the sweat of others – in other words, they reap on a monthly basis from where they did not sow! The two burden-bearer zones are the South-south and South-west, with the latter being the greater losers.

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Those riding on the back of others will never disembark unless they are forced to.

Unfortunately, free lunch offers no incentives for anyone to work harder.

And those being held down as beasts of burden will never achieve their true potential for as long as they carry the can for others. What a lose-lose situation in real or absolute terms!

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FEEDBACK

RE: If state police are not to suffer a stillbirth…

Thank you so much for this piece! Brig-Gen. Jibola Togun once drew my attention to the lack of support by our governors for Amotekun after the exit of Rotimi Akeredolu from earthly life.

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I have written no fewer than five times on the imperatives of the establishment of state police, drawing attention to how formal policing began at Abeokuta in 1903, but took off in 1905, followed by Ibadan in 1906 and Oyo, 1907 and from there to other divisions of Yorubaland.

If our forebears could see the imperatives of divisional and regional policing, the attitude of our governors after Akeredolu has been shocking and disappointing. The first responsibility of any government is security.

It is, in fact, the origin of government. We can see now that the establishment of state police has received a national stamp. Well done! – Lade Bonuola

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Has Tinubu lost his grip on the Nigerian media?

The shortcomings you highlighted and the solutions proffered are top-notch. I am one of those who believe until tomorrow that (Dele) Alake should have been Tinubu’s spokesman (but) rumours have it that Gbaja and Alake can not co-habit at the villa! Reno Omokri is doing far better than all the government paid spokesmen, including Onanuga. Ask yourself why Dele Momodu and Femi Ojudu distanced themselves from Tinubu. Self-interest, I presume! I have read the “Adventure of Guerrilla Journalist” by Ojudu and I have heard Momodu narrate how Tinubu gave him 500 pounds while they were in exile. I have equally heard how Remi asked: “Uncle Dee, so you are not going to work for my husband?” That question is loaded. Nobody runs Tinubu down as does the duo! I don’t think the Nigerian Press is as dangerous as the TV anchor personalities. Many no longer read newspapers but depend on TV stations. Arise News, for instance, sees all government actions from negative perspectives. They know who to invite: hardly will you see their guests not towing their preferred line of thought.

More often than not, they carefully select the APC men they can easily bully. Rufyy is a pessimist par excellence, only he is honest and capable! To him, all Nigerians are corrupt and unpatriotic – except himself! Abati was my hall mate at Awo Postgraduate Hall, UI… He always loves to play smart (but) I think an average Nigerian knows that he is biased.

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He is a PDP card-carrying member. Seun Okinbaloye is worse, despite the fact that the Finance Minister has said it times without number that the right question to ask is ‘where would Nigeria have been if the (Tinubu) reforms were not introduced’ and NOT ‘is your life better now than it was in 2023?’ Okinbaloye is aware of the 33 trillion paper-money printed, the huge amount owed foreign airlines, and the less than four billion dollars in the foreign reserves account.

Yet, Seun will have none of that! He is in the habit of parading statistics just to discredit the government.

The ones that favour the government are downplayed! Hardly will you see Seun ask the right follow-up questions from the opposition. Tinubu needs to strengthen his information machinery in all its ramifications. – Rev. Canon Dr. Kayode Abegunde.

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Can anyone or organization in this country have the media in their pocket? I ask this question as someone who has spent almost 50 years in the media and who has done only media job all his life.

But I look at media relations in this country and ask myself: how can these guys be so dumb? All the attacks on opponents and critics will be useless after the President leaves office.

Also read: Mourinho Holds Fire on Huijsen Red Card After 2-1 Loss

Where is Buhari’s press value today? It is all gone! Where is Femi Adesina? And where is Garba Sheu? Government media minders are lazy; they are not deep enough; they focus on fighting political opponents and critics and once the government they serve disappears, they, too, will disappear with it! They do not bother to convince anyone; they just shout at us and think that is press relations! They should understudy Ogbuefi Nwokedi and Tunji Oseni! – Olowo Adebola.

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(Published in the ON THE LORD’S DAY column in the SUNDAY TRIBUNE newspaper edition of Sunday, 20 September, 2026).

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