Bola BOLAWOLE
Nigeria-US diplomacy intensifies as political and military tensions rise, threatening stability in West Africa and the wider international order
“A 17th century English author, diplomat, and politician, Sir Henry Wotton (1568 – 1639), was quoted as describing, in 1604, an ambassador or diplomat as ‘an honest gentleman sent to lie abroad for the good of his country’”
“How can an honest gentleman also tell lies?”
“That is the irony of it – but the statement is factual. It is exactly what diplomats do. Sir Henry spoke from the two angles of theory and practice”
“That was many centuries ago! I am sure events, especially civilization, must have overtaken such crudity”
“On the contrary! Sir Henry’s classical statement still holds true today. If a diplomat speaks and you immediately know what he means and where he is heading, then, he is a novice in the art”
“Really? We are admonished to call a spade a spade…!”
“Not in the world of diplomacy! And not as it pertains to relations between countries in the international political system. Are you aware that diplomats also spy for their country and even organize assassinations for its good?”
“L’o-ba-tan! And you call that ‘good’?”
“The world of diplomacy is trickish, delicate and deadly; strewn with all manner of dangerous ups-and-downs. Are you aware that Sir Henry paid dearly for his witty and satirical statement?“
“How?“
“The hegemon of his time, King James the First, heard of it and was sorely displeased. He caused Sir Henry to be disgraced!”
“That is serious, for such an innocuous statement?“
“He was even lucky! Some get killed for gaffes more trifling than that…”
“Then the world of diplomacy is a dangerous one”
“It is! When you are close to the corridors of power, you must be very careful with every statement and action of yours. Here in Nigeria, one top brass recently failed to, and he paid dearly for it, dragging some other unlucky folks along with him…”
“And who can that be?”
“Were you not in this country when there was a rumoured coup or no coup…”
“Oh! Yes, yes, yes…”
“Oh-ooo! Where is the person who made the confirmation? Tell me, is he still sitting pretty in his office?
“I seeee! But he tried to manage the situation very well…”
“Not well enough to the pleasure of the hegemon. They must have reasoned that he was not diplomatic enough…”
“You mean he did not lie enough?
“Exactly! Diplomats are masters of doublespeak, deceit, and subterfuge…”
“All for the good of their country…”
“You are a fast learner! Don’t you see how America has thrown the whole of Nigeria into confusion? A statement of a few words has kept Nigerians guessing, with Nigerian leaders running from pillar to post…”
“Even me, I am worried! We are not talking here about Liberia or Sierra Leone! The USA is the military hegemony of the world. I understand even the terrorists have started fleeing Nigeria!”
“Who dash monkey banana! But I, for one, am not worried. Those who are worried are those who took the words of President Donald Trump at their face value…”
“But he couldn’t have been more emphatic: Stop the genocide of Nigerian Christians or else…”
”You mean you don’t want the genocide to stop?“
“What of the dire consequences of foreign invasion? We have seen what the USA did everywhere they invaded. I think we should be left alone to tackle the problem ourselves”
“I am sorry, you will not! You cannot be trusted to do the needful. Since 1999, you have been left alone, but what have you done? Besides, stopping genocide is the least of the reasons why the USA will want to invade Nigeria, if it must. “
“Now you are getting my point! The USA can stop genocide in Nigeria simply by sneezing, just like they have done. They need not invade…”
“Donald Trump has become France’s Napoleon Bonaparte of our time? In his own days, it is written that when Napoleon sneezes, the whole of Europe catches cold!“
“So, you can see that they have a hidden agenda and ulterior motives if they still invade. Have you heard that the Yankees are after our resources? “
“I have heard, but that is not the reason…”
“They are angry at some of our policies and utterances…”
“I know, but that is not the reason…”
“Our membership of BRICS ails them…”
”Maybe, but that still is not the reason…”
”We spoke in support of Hamas, Iran..”
“Diplomats and world leaders schooled in the art of diplomacy sell dummies. You never get to know where they are coming from until they get to where they are going…”
“I am lost! Can it be Peter Obi that went to the US to engineer Trump against Nigeria?“
“ That one na small fry! America can use him, but he can never use America. Don’t compare sleep with death…”
“I really cannot understand why a superpower will flex muscles with a poor country like Nigeria; ordinary AK-47, we cannot produce locally…”
”But don’t you call yourself the ‘Giant of Africa’? Giant with clay feet! And don’t you say you are oil-rich? Wahala knocks on your door and you have started singing like a canary!”
“Shakara oloje, as Fela called it, is different from a real situation of trepidation that faces us now.”
“Whether you like it or not, America is coming; except they find a better way of serving their core national interest…”
“And what is that? “
“You think it was for fun that the hegemon here got really angry that a top military brass publicly and officially confirmed that there were rumblings in the military?”
“He said there was minor misdemeanor over failed exams, lack of promotion, and stagnant career…”
“And what fuels discontentment and grumblings in the military more than those?’
“I see! I never thought of it that way…”
”Assuming the masterminds were not caught before they could strike, think of the configuration… “
“Mostly Northern military officers, mostly Moslems as well! And against a sitting Yoruba president. That would be ‘June 12’ Part Two”
“Now add that to the Sahel states of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso where the military are in power via coup and have switched allegiance from the Western orbit to the ideological camp of Russia and China…”
“I am getting the point, but…”
“Wait! A northern, Muslim military president in Nigeria, joining forces with the military leaders of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso; configure it! Nigeria is the ‘Giant of Africa’; one of its largest economies, and the undisputed hegemon of the West African sub-region…”
“Whaaoh! The picture is getting clearer! America will never allow that…”
“But it nearly happened! That some Nigerian military officers could even conjecture it is alarming…”
“Which is the more reason Trump should deliver massive help to Nigeria…”
“The one America delivered in the past, what happened to it? Corruption, compromise, conflict of interest, and incompetence ensured that everything went down the drains. What is more, the USA and the entire West now face existential threat to their economic and political interests in West Africa. I am sure you know coup can be contagious?
“Yes, which was why ECOWAS sanctioned the coupists, but instead of retracing their footsteps, those ones escalated the matter by quitting…”
“What message did that send to the US and the West? That Nigeria and ECOWAS are toothless bulldogs! It would have been better if ECOWAS had not barked at all. In the good old days of Liberia and Sierra Leone, what do you think ‘smoking gun’ Nigeria would have done?“
“Oh my! We would have wasted no time to force-feed them with Pax Nigeriana!”
“And you think the US and the West will sit idly by and watch the theatrics of the military leaders of the Sahel states, especially Ibrahim Traoro of Burkina Faso?”
“As sovereign states the Sahel states have a right to the leadership they desire…”
”On paper, yes; but in the realpolitik of the international political system as we have it today, strong nations have their way while weak nations suffer their fate”
“There is a new dimension to the matter. With China and Russia backing the Sahel states, the West African sub-region may soon become the theatre of war between the superpowers…”
“In that event, the US needs a military base close to the theatre of war…”
“Will Nigeria offer one? “
“If Nigeria does not, splinter-nations from Nigeria will…”
‘”You mean it can get that serious? “
“Oh! So you think it is a laughing matter? The US predicted that NIgeria would disintegrate 10 years ago. The likelihood is that they have been on the drawing board since then, biding their time…“
“And you think the time is ripe for them to strike now? “
“Something like it! Biafrans want to go; Yoruba want to exit; the Middle Belt is tired of Arewa; even the Hausa want to overthrow Fulani suzerainty…”
“So what you are saying is that it is no longer a question of whether but when…”
”And also of how: Czechoslovakia or Yugoslavia? America’s core interests are two-fold: To prevent the contagion of military coups spreading to Nigeria; and to grab a launch pad to reverse what it sees as the madness of the Sahel states. Other reasons are mere addendums”
“Complex; so complex! Looked at closely, isn’t it Buhari’s CPC (Congress of Progressive Change) that has brought Trump’s CPC (Country of Particular Concern) upon us in this country?”
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