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Fraudulent elections: In whose interest?

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Nigerian electronic voting debate intensifies as analyst argues technology cannot guarantee free and fair elections without moral reform

“Men at some times are masters of their fates: The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves that we are underlings… ” – Cassius to Brutus in William Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar.

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Also read: Barcelona President Joan Laporta Resigns Ahead of March 15 Elections

I dare to say that it is not the absence of laws that has denied Nigeria free and fair elections. We have a surfeit of laws that should have guaranteed that we always have credible elections.

In other words, the fault is not in the absence of laws – or the inadequacy of laws – it is in us the people that implement the laws.

The fault, dear compatriots, is not in our laws but in ourselves that we have been unable to organise free and fair elections!

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What have we not tried? Cardreaders gulped billions of Naira, but it failed us, and we discarded them.

Perhaps, it is better to say we were the ones that failed card-readers! What works fantastically well in other places fails woefully here.

The fault is not in the system or technology – it is us, its users and manipulators. Billions of Naira went down the drains with the card readers.

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We shifted to BVAS. Billions of Naira again went into its procurement.

We were told, just as we had been told with card-readers – that BVAS was the magic wand that would give us credible elections.

Again, BVAS failed us! Or, better still, we failed BVAS – just like we failed its elder brother called card-readers. Billions of Naira again went down the drains.

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Lest I forget, there was iRev! Did it work here?

Now we are being told that
electronically-transmitted election results are the panacea to election irregularities in this country.

Once elections are electronically-transmitted, Eureka! This is another lie from the pit of hell!

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Will election results electronically transmit themselves or it is human beings that will still transmit the results? Will electronic gadgets operate by themselves or will people still operate them? Are we going to manufacture or mint new and fresh people to man the gadgets or the same Nigerians that you and I know too well are those that will still man and operate the gadgets? Are we, like the Dangote refinery, going to India to import people who will man the electronic gadgets and manage our elections for us?

We are adept at telling ourselves lies, like the proverbial ostrich that hides only its head in the sand while its rump remains exposed.

We run away from our problems and chase shadows. No amount of gadgets will give us free and fair elections. We will only end up wasting billions of Naira again.

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Every election cycle, some people smile their way to the bank while Nigerians eager to have free and fair elections gnash their teeth and bemoan their circumstance.

No gadgets will deliver credible elections to Nigerians.

Only Nigerians can deliver credible elections unto themselves. Unfortunately, Nigerians, as I perceive them today, are not wired to deliver credible elections to themselves.

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The protests and placard-carrying by those yelling for electronically-transmitted election results are mere roadshows and election campaign gambits.

It is just another charade of those who leave the substance to chase shadows. If and after the 2027 elections are transmitted electronically and nothing has changed, you will say I said so!

Is it not Nigeria? This same Nigeria that we all know like the back of our hands? The integrity of elections – or the absence of it – is directly proportional to the integrity or absence of it in many stakeholders involved in the electoral process.

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Electoral laws, important as they are, are not the only factors responsible for, or contributing to the success of elections. Equally important – in fact, more important – are the roles played and the actions taken by politicians, the voters themselves, the election umpire, the security agencies, and, wait for it, the judges who adjudicate in election disputes.

For instance, can electronically-transmitted election results prevent judges from entering the same kind of judgment they delivered in Kogi state (involving Yahaya Bello) or in Imo state (involving Hope Uzodinma)?

Like a woman lacking in good character who bemoans what she describes as her ill-luck in choosing a good husband, Nigerians, having lost all morals, complain about the inadequacy of laws! Yet, the best election ever conducted in this country was the simplest – and, possibly, the cheapest!

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The Option A4 that produced the June 12, 1993 presidential election between MKO Abiola and Bashir Tofa was conducted with voters simply queuing in front of the poster of their preferred candidate.

And Nigerians as well as the international community agreed that the election was not only free and fair – and the freest and fairest ever in Nigeria – but also credible by all international standards.

No card readers. No BVAS. No iRev. No electronically-transmitted results.

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The simplicity of that election must have saved the country billions of Naira.

That election ought to have taught us useful lessons.

Nigerians generally were tired of ruinous military rule and desperately wanted an escape route out of it.

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A return to democracy, civil or civilian rule was seen as the most viable option.

But 26/27 years down the road, have the civilians creditably discharged themselves? If a referendum or opinion poll is conducted today, will you be surprised if a large number of Nigerians are despondent about civilian rule?

MKO Abiola had a message, which resonated with the people.

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Farewell to poverty! And his roadmap to achieving it at the earliest possible time – he gave himself six months in the first instance – appeared credible to the people.

Since 1999, what can anyone point at as the message of our successive leaders that has fired the imagination and stoked the nationalistic fervour of the people?

Abiola’s larger-than-life personality was also something else. He nearly won a pan-Nigeria mandate; only in the south-east did he badly trail his opponent.

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Governmental failure since 1999 has led to political apathy, such that a preponderance of Nigerians do not care whether there are elections or not – not to talk of them being free and fair! With the weaponization of poverty, many of those who still go out to vote do so to collect the peanuts that politicians dole out to buy votes.

Now, will electronically-transmitted results stop vote-selling and vote-buying? Will electronically-transmitted results ensure internal democracy in the political parties? Will electronically-transmitted results put an end to the godfather/godson syndrome, the like of which has made Rivers state ungovernable in the past few years?

Before anyone will say that I am against electronically-transmitted election results, let me say categorically that I am not! What I am only saying is that, that, in itself, will not deliver credible or guarantee free and fair elections.

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The problems bedevilling credible elections here precede the actual casting, counting, recording of votes and announcement of election results.

Most, if not all, of the political parties lack internal democracy. So, godfathers, instead of party members, decide who stands for election.

From that very foundation, free choice is impaired.

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The best candidates are seldom presented to the electorate. Whatever choice made afterwards by the voters is, therefore, stunted right from the word “go.”

And whether or not we electronically-transmit results, voters do not have the last say on election matters. The courts and judges do!

In a 1787 letter, Thomas Jefferson, the 3rd president of the United States of America, was quoted as saying: “Were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter.”

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While we can interpret that statement to mean a strong advocacy for freedom of speech – and it sure is – I can also recoin it thus: Were I to choose between an electoral process full of morals without laws and that full of laws without morals, I will not hesitate a moment to choose the former.

On a trip to Germany in 1994 at the invitation of the German government, my guide, a university professor, told me the percentage of Germans who would willingly do the right thing without anyone compelling them was between 85 and 87 percent.

Yet, she said they were still trying to do some catching up with the Scandinavian countries where the same percentage hovered around 97 percent.

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Whaaoh! She waited for me to catch my breath before adding that the vagrant 3 percent was usually accounted for largely by immigrants! Racism? Not quite! Reality that we are well familiar with!

Elections run seamlessly in some countries. Not the bloody battles that we witness here. And at a fraction of the humongous costs we incur here. But what should anyone expect?

Terrorism and banditry, kidnapping and ransom-taking, criminal activities and politics are the most lucrative businesses around here these days. There is no consequence for bad behaviour.

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Everyone wants quick and easy money.

The prayers that receive the loudest “Amen” or “Amin” in places of worship are those that decree little work but big rewards!

Be those in power or the ones angling to replace them, what kind of examples are we giving the younger generations with the kind of leaders we parade?

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Clean elections cannot but be a rarity in climes such as ours whether or not we electronically transmit more than election results!

Also read: Husain criticises Aregbesola’s take on 2023 elections

Interestingly, it is, ultimately, a lose-lose situation for both the beneficiaries of fraudulent elections and its victims!

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Opinion

Tegbe’s 24-Hour Energy Zones and the Shift From Megawatts to Money

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Tegbe

 By Sufuyan Ojeifo,

There is a point at which a country’s electricity problem ceases to be merely an electricity problem. It becomes a problem of economic geography.

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Also read: Everton Celebrates Nigeria’s 66th Independence With Football Legends

Where can factories operate with confidence? Where can businesses plan beyond the next appearance of a generator? Where can hospitals, schools, technology companies, markets and households begin to organise their lives around the reasonable expectation that electricity will be there?

This is the thinking behind the latest initiative from the Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, to develop what the Federal Government calls Energy Zones – defined corridors where homes, businesses and industries could receive stable, 24-hour electricity.

The proposed zones cover the Lagos axis, the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano corridor and the Enugu-Port Harcourt corridor. Tegbe’s latest move is a meeting with selected electricity distribution companies to begin working through what it would take to make the idea real.

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At first glance, it sounds like another promise of uninterrupted electricity in a country that has heard too many such promises. However, there is something more consequential in the architecture of the proposal.

Tegbe is asking Nigerians to look at the power problem differently.

For years, the national conversation has been dominated by generation. How many megawatts are being produced? How much can the transmission grid carry? How many generating plants are working? These are important questions. But electricity does not become useful simply because it has been generated.

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It must travel. It must be received. It must be distributed. And ultimately, somebody must be able to use it. That last part has often been treated as the end of the conversation when, in reality, it is where the economic value of electricity begins.

Tegbe has put the point plainly. The constraint is not limited to generation and transmission; it also includes how much electricity can be taken up and delivered at the distribution end.

The proposed Energy Zones are intended to address precisely that gap while improving commercial demand and the revenue performance of the distribution companies.

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There is an important idea here.

Nigeria does not necessarily have to wait for every weakness in the electricity value chain to be solved simultaneously before beginning to create pockets of reliability.

A country of more than 200 million people, with enormous differences in industrial activity, population density and commercial demand, may have to proceed through carefully selected economic corridors while the wider system is repaired.

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This is not an argument for abandoning the national grid. It is an argument for making the grid more economically purposeful.

The three corridors selected by the Ministry are revealing. Lagos and its adjoining industrial axis represent perhaps the country’s most concentrated commercial and industrial demand.

The Abuja-Kaduna-Kano corridor connects the political capital with major commercial and industrial centres in the North. Enugu-Port Harcourt links important commercial, manufacturing and energy-producing communities in the South-East and South-South.

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These are not simply lines on a power map. They are lines on Nigeria’s economic map. That distinction matters.

For too long, Nigerians have experienced electricity largely as a household inconvenience. The light goes off. The generator comes on. A business buys diesel. A manufacturer factors self-generation into production costs. A hospital makes contingency arrangements.

A young entrepreneur learns, often painfully, that the real price of electricity is not what appears on the bill but what it costs to keep the business alive when the supply fails.

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A reliable electricity corridor changes that equation.

If a factory knows that a particular industrial cluster has dependable power, investment decisions begin to change.

If a commercial district can plan around predictable electricity, operating costs become easier to manage.

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If businesses can depend on supply for most of the day, generators can move from being the first line of defence to being what they were always supposed to be: backup.

This is where Tegbe’s technocratic instincts may prove significant.

His background is not that of a career power-sector operator. His professional experience has largely been in consulting, fiscal and economic reform, institutional transformation and advisory work. That background has been visible in his early approach to the ministry – diagnosis, audits, financial questions, infrastructure bottlenecks, and attempts to identify where one part of the system is preventing another from functioning properly.

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His Energy Zones proposal fits that pattern. It treats the electricity market less as a single machine waiting for one dramatic repair and more as a system of interconnected constraints that can be isolated, diagnosed and addressed.

Tegbe had already identified the three corridors as priorities for grid stabilisation, with technical audits intended to establish the condition of critical infrastructure. The latest engagement with DisCos suggests that the idea is now moving beyond technical diagnosis towards the more difficult question of how distribution will work within those corridors.

That is where the hard work begins.

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A 24-hour power zone cannot be created by a press statement. It requires generation that is available when needed, transmission capacity that can carry it, distribution infrastructure capable of receiving it, transformers and feeders that can withstand the load, metering that properly captures consumption, customers willing and able to pay, and a commercial structure in which the various participants have an incentive to keep the system working.

It also requires protection. Vandalism and energy theft do not respect administrative boundaries. Neither do faulty equipment, unpaid bills or poor collection practices. Tegbe himself has acknowledged that the sector’s problems reinforce one another. Weak collections affect the market. Market weakness affects maintenance and gas payments. Unreliable supply in turn depresses collections.

This is why the Energy Zone experiment, if it is to succeed, must be judged by more than the number of hours electricity is available.

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The real test will be whether reliability begins to produce economic consequences. Does industrial output increase? Do businesses spend less on self-generation? Does investment respond? Do DisCos collect more because customers are receiving a service they can trust? Does the government recover enough value from improved commercial activity to justify further infrastructure investment?

Those are the questions that should eventually accompany the glossy language of 24-hour power.

And there is another question that Tegbe and the Federal Government will have to confront: what happens outside the zones?

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Nigeria cannot become a collection of electrically privileged corridors surrounded by communities waiting indefinitely for their turn.

The logic of concentrating investment in high-demand areas can be defended economically, especially if the resulting commercial activity strengthens the wider electricity market.

But the strategy will ultimately have to demonstrate how successful zones become stepping stones towards broader reliability.

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That is the difference between an experiment and a system.

There is also a danger in admiring the architecture of reform from the comfort of an office.

It has to be said here that the statement issued by the minister’s media aide was long on ambition and conspicuously short on the details that matter. No timeline. No capacity targets. No specific investment figures. It is the kind of announcement that has, historically, been the precursor to nothing at all.

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So Nigerians should watch the idea with interest, but also with the healthy scepticism that comes from decades of promises about electricity.

The minister deserves a measure of credit for at least diagnosing an important part of the illness.

For once, the conversation has shifted from the head to the feet – from generation to distribution, from megawatts to money.

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At the same time, the Nigerian people have been given blueprints before. They have learned to admire the drawings while the building crumbles.

The Energy Zones remain a proposal. The government has not yet announced the detailed capacity requirements, implementation timetable or precise infrastructure investments that would make 24-hour supply possible.

That is not necessarily a fatal flaw. It may simply mean the idea is still being worked out.

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But it does mean that the language of 24-hour power should be treated as an aspiration until it is matched by the machinery of implementation.

Yet the proposal deserves attention because it reflects a potentially important shift in the way the power problem is being conceived.

Nigeria may not fix its electricity crisis in one heroic sweep. It may have to build reliability corridor by corridor, demand centre by demand centre, and economic cluster by economic cluster.

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There is nothing inherently glamorous about such work. It is engineering, finance, regulation, distribution and relentless attention to the weak link in the chain. But perhaps that is precisely the point.

The country has spent decades waiting for the great national electricity breakthrough.

Tegbe’s emerging approach suggests something less dramatic and potentially more practical: make a few economically critical parts of the system work properly, learn from them, strengthen the model, and expand it.

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The success of that approach will ultimately be measured not in speeches or megawatts, but in what Nigerians can do with the electricity when it arrives.

Does the factory run a second shift? Does the business hire more workers? Does the hospital keep its equipment running through the night? Does the young entrepreneur stop budgeting for diesel and start budgeting for growth?

Also read: Everton Celebrates Nigeria’s 66th Independence With Football Legends

That is where the real power story begins. And that is the standard against which Tegbe’s Energy Zones should ultimately be judged: not by whether 24-hour power sounds impressive in a press release, but by whether the lights stay on long enough for Nigerians to build something with them.

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