Opinion

Beware of 2027 election false prophets and political delusion

Published

9 minutes ago

August 25, 2026

Why the Opposition May Lose Again – Not Because President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Is Unbeatable, but Because His Opponents Are Unprepared

By Nosa Osaikhuiwu,

There is a dangerous political delusion taking hold in Nigeria ahead of the 2027 presidential election: the belief that because millions of Nigerians are unhappy with the government, the opposition will automatically defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Also read: APC Reaffirms Yayi Amid Ogun Ticket Dispute

That assumption could prove to be one of the opposition’s biggest mistakes. There is another narrative that has become almost unquestionable in some political circles: that the opposition actually won the 2023 presidential election and that its victory was stolen.

I do not subscribe to that narrative, because the conclusions are baseless without empirical data, unsubstantiated and unfounded.

Let me state my position clearly. I am not an APC supporter, nor am I a supporter of any political party in Nigeria. My position is based on political realities and my commitment to good governance, culture change, ethical transformation and a better Nigeria.

I believe Nigerians must learn to distinguish between what we wish had happened and what actually happened. Because as the saying goes “if wishes were horses baggers will ride all day”.

THE 2023 ELECTION: POLITICAL MATHEMATICS MATTERED

The 2023 presidential election was fundamentally different from the elections that preceded it because Nigeria’s traditional two-party political contest was disrupted by the emergence of Peter Obi and the Labor Party as a major electoral force.

Before Peter Obi left the PDP, the presidential contest was largely expected to be between the PDP and APC. Then the equation changed.

Peter Obi left the PDP and joined the Labor Party. His candidacy captured the imagination of millions of Nigerians, particularly young people and voters who wanted a fundamental change in the political system.

But there was an important consequence that many people appear unwilling to acknowledge: The opposition vote was divided.

A substantial portion of the electorate that might otherwise have supported the PDP moved toward Labor. This move was a game changer for the political and electoral landscape.

It transformed what could have been essentially a two-way contest into a three-way presidential election. This was not a minor development. It changed the mathematical calculus of the election.

The APC entered the election as the incumbent governing party, with the enormous political advantages that come with incumbency and an established national political structure.

The PDP had its own extensive national structure, but it was weakened by internal divisions and the emergence of the Labor Party.

The Labor Party, meanwhile, generated enormous enthusiasm but did not possess the national political structure of either the APC or PDP.

The electoral outcome was predictable from a political-mathematical standpoint. The opposition was divided. The APC was sufficiently consolidated. Consequently, the APC won.

That conclusion does not require anyone to be an APC supporter. It requires only an honest examination of the political circumstances surrounding the election.

WAS THE 2023 ELECTION PERFECT?

An unbiased and responsible review of the 2023 presidential elections will acknowledge that it was not perfect. Frankly, there are no perfect elections anywhere in the world.

There were controversies, alleged irregularities and unverified claims of record manipulation during the election.

But we must distinguish between two different arguments. The first is that the election contained irregularities. The second is that those irregularities were sufficient to change the final outcome.

The first proposition is not particularly controversial. The second requires credible evidence to substantiate the claims made.

An election does not become automatically invalid simply because irregularities occurred. Elections around the world experience administrative failures, logistical problems, disputes, allegations of malpractice and other imperfections.

The relevant question is whether those problems were sufficient to change the outcome. That is where political argument must give way to evidence.

The more important lesson from 2023, therefore, is not that somebody “stole” an election that was already won.

The more important lesson is that a divided opposition made it easier for the incumbent party to win. And that lesson is extremely relevant to 2027.

TINUBU’S BIGGEST ADVANTAGE MAY BE THE OPPOSITION

Let us be brutally honest. President Tinubu’s administration has significant economic and political challenges. Inflation, rising cost of living, unemployment, insecurity, hardship and declining purchasing power have created genuine pain for millions of Nigerians.

The government’s economic reforms may have been motivated by legitimate concerns about the sustainability of Nigeria’s economy.

But good intentions do not exempt a government from performance evaluation. Government must ultimately be judged by results.

If Nigerians were voting exclusively on economic performance, the APC would have plenty to worry about.

But elections are not mathematics based solely on economic indicators. They are political contests. And politics is about organization, structure, messaging, coalition-building, voter mobilization and the ability to convert public sentiment into votes. This is where the opposition is making a potentially catastrophic mistake.

The opposition appears to believe that dissatisfaction with Tinubu is equivalent to support for the opposition.

It is not. Millions of Nigerians can be unhappy with the APC and still refuse to vote for an opposition party. Millions can complain about the economy and still have no confidence in the alternative. Millions can criticize Tinubu and still ask:

“Who exactly are you bringing to replace him?”

That is the question the opposition has yet to answer convincingly.

SOCIAL MEDIA IS NOT THE BALLOT BOX

One of the greatest political illusions of modern Nigeria is the belief that social-media popularity represents electoral strength. It does not. A politician can dominate Facebook, X, Tik-Tok or YouTube and still lose an election. Why? Because elections are not won by likes, reposts, hashtags, viral videos, but are won by voters going to the polls and making choices known.

They are won by organizing voters geographically from ward level, communities to their polling units by having a ground game that actively engages local leaders, traditional institutions, religious institutions, professional associations, youth organizations and community networks to ensure they deliver their votes. The party that understands this reality will have an enormous advantage.

The opposition cannot spend the next year fighting political battles on the internet while the APC builds and maintains political structures across the country.

The internet can amplify a political movement. It cannot substitute for a political organization.

THREE THINGS THE OPPOSITION MUST DO

If the opposition genuinely wants to defeat the APC in 2027, it must act now.

CONSOLIDATE

The opposition parties need to stop pretending that each one can independently defeat the APC. PDP, Labor, ADC and other opposition forces must seriously consider forming a genuine political coalition or adopting a common platform.

The objective cannot simply be “anything but Tinubu.”

That is not enough. Nigeria needs an alternative government, not merely an anti-Tinubu movement.

The coalition must develop a credible economic, security, educational, industrial and governance agenda. It must tell Nigerians exactly what it intends to do differently.

PRESENT ONE CANDIDATE

This may be the most important issue of all. The opposition cannot repeat 2023. If multiple opposition candidates enter the presidential race and divide the anti-APC vote again, they may once again hand the election to the incumbent.

One presidential candidate.

One national platform.

One coherent message.

One campaign structure.

One political strategy.

That is the only realistic pathway toward transforming widespread dissatisfaction into an electoral majority.

The process of choosing that candidate must not become another ethnic or regional contest. Nigeria needs a candidate who can build a national coalition.

A candidate who can win in the North.

A candidate who can win in the South.

A candidate who can appeal to Christians and Muslims.

A candidate who can appeal to young and old.

A candidate who can convince Nigerians that the alternative government will be competent, ethical and capable.

TAKE THE CAMPAIGN TO THE STREETS

The opposition must get off the internet.

Go to the communities.

Go to the wards.

Go to the villages.

Go to the markets.

Go to the universities.

Go to the workplaces.

Talk to farmers.

Talk to traders.

Talk to artisans.

Talk to young people.

Talk to women.

Talk to professionals.

Talk to people who have never posted a political message on social media.

Most importantly, listen to them. A political party cannot build a national movement by speaking only to people who already agree with it. It must persuade people who are undecided. That is how elections are won.

STOP BLAMING THE REFEREE

There is a deeper cultural problem that Nigeria must confront.

We have developed an extraordinary culture of avoiding responsibility. A student fails an examination and blames the teacher.

A football team loses and blames the referee.

A driver causes an accident and blames the devil.

A politician loses an election and immediately claims that the election was stolen.

Sometimes those accusations are justified.

But not always.

Sometimes we simply failed.

Sometimes we were not prepared.

Sometimes our opponent was better organized.

Sometimes our strategy was poor.

Sometimes our candidate was not popular enough.

Sometimes we did not have enough votes.

There is nothing undignified about acknowledging defeat.

In fact, the ability to honestly analyze failure is one of the foundations of ethical leadership.

Nigeria cannot build a culture of accountability while politicians refuse to accept responsibility for their own strategic failures.

If the opposition loses in 2027, it should not automatically blame INEC, the APC, the judiciary, technology, vote buying or electoral manipulation.

It should first ask:

Did we do everything necessary to win?

Did we have the structure?

Did we mobilize the voters?

Did we have one candidate?

Did we have a credible message?

Did we build a national coalition?

Did we protect our votes?

Did we understand the political terrain?

Did we actually convince undecided voters?

If the answer to these questions is no, then perhaps the problem was not simply the election.

Perhaps the problem was the opposition.

2027 IS NOT YET A FOREGONE CONCLUSION

Let me be clear: I am not predicting that President Tinubu will certainly win the 2027 election.

No responsible political analyst should make that claim at this stage.

Elections can change dramatically.

Political alliances can collapse.

New movements can emerge.

Economic conditions can change.

A powerful opposition coalition can alter the entire political equation.

But based on the political structure that exists today, the APC has a significant advantage.

And if the opposition continues to operate as it did in 2023, fragmented, internally divided and without a single national candidate, it could lose again.

Not necessarily because Tinubu’s government has performed exceptionally well. Not necessarily because Nigerians are satisfied.

But because the alternative has failed to organize itself sufficiently to take power. That is the uncomfortable truth many opposition politicians and the supporters do not want to hear.

THE FALSE PROPHETS ARE COMING

As 2027 approaches, Nigerians should expect a flood of political predictions. Some will tell you that the opposition has already won. Some will tell you that a particular candidate is “unstoppable.”

Those in the faith arena proclaim from the roof top that God has revealed the winner to them and that a candidate in the opposition rank or the incumbent president is the one chosen by God.

Others will interpret social-media trends as evidence of an inevitable electoral victory.

Some will publish elaborate electoral maps based on nothing more than wishful thinking. Many will blame every political setback on conspiracy.

Nigerians must be careful.

Political prophecy is not political strategy.

A viral video is not an election.

A poll is not an election.

A political rally is not an election.

A crowd is not an election.

An angry population is not automatically an opposition electorate.

The only thing that ultimately matters is whether a political organization can convert public sentiment into votes.

NIGERIA NEEDS A COMPETENT OPPOSITION

I want the opposition to compete, not because I support any particular political party, but because democracy requires a credible alternative.

A healthy democracy needs a government that knows it can be challenged.

It needs an opposition that can scrutinize government policies.

It needs political parties that can present alternative economic policies.

It needs leaders who can accept responsibility.

It needs citizens who can distinguish facts from political propaganda.

Most importantly, Nigeria needs a political culture in which elections are contests of ideas, competence and character rather than ethnic calculations, religious mobilization and personality cults.

The opposition still has time.

But it must wake up.

Stop fighting one another.

Stop living on social media.

Stop waiting for the APC to collapse.

Stop assuming economic hardship automatically translates into opposition votes.

Stop telling Nigerians that you already won an election you did not win.

Stop blaming everyone else.

Organize. Consolidate. Choose one candidate. Build a national coalition. Develop a credible alternative agenda. Go to the grassroots. Mobilize voters. Protect the votes.

Then compete.

If the opposition does that and still loses, it will at least have earned the right to demand a serious examination of the electoral process.

But if it refuses to do the work and loses again, Nigerians should not be surprised.

Also read: APC Reaffirms Yayi Amid Ogun Ticket Dispute

The APC may win, not because it is unbeatable, but because its opponents were unwilling or unable to become a credible alternative. That would be the greatest tragedy of all. Because Nigeria does not merely need a new government.

Nigeria needs a better political culture.

And that culture change must begin with accepting one simple principle:

If you want to win, prepare to win.

Anything less is political delusion.

Opinion

Government should stop funding sports

Published

24 hours ago

August 24, 2026

Mariam Balogun

By Ehi Braimah,

Nigeria should stop pretending that pouring public money into sports is the same thing as developing sports. It is not. For decades, government has funded football through grants, interventions, bonuses, camps, competitions, travel and assorted forms of financial assistance.

Also read:Valverde Confirmed as Real Madrid Captain Under Mourinho

Yet, the more government spends, the more dysfunctional the system appears to become. At what point do we admit that the model itself is broken?

The latest evidence is staring us in the face. The Super Eagles did not participate at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

Nigeria also missed Qatar 2022 which means the Super Eagles have now missed two consecutive World Cups.

This is particularly painful and a bitter pill to swallow because Africa had ten places at the expanded 48-team tournament. Nigeria still could not make it. The Eagles finished second in their qualifying group and subsequently lost to DR Congo on penalties in the African play-off.

Football is Nigeria’s drumbeat. It is one of the few things capable of bringing together Nigerians across ethnic, religious, political and social divides.

When the Super Eagles play, the country stops, and when they win, Nigeria celebrates together. That is why this failure hurts so much.

But the crisis is deeper than the Super Eagles. The Super Falcons, once the undisputed queens of African women’s football, have suffered an even more devastating setback. Nigeria lost 1-0 to Cameroon in the WAFCON quarter-final and subsequently lost 2-1 to South Africa in the play-off for a place in the 2027 Women’s World Cup in Brazil.

Consequently, Nigeria will miss the Women’s World Cup for the first time since the competition began in 1991. This is not an ordinary footballing disappointment – it is an egregious warning signal.

And the response cannot simply be another change of personnel. I have seen this movie before. Whenever Nigerian football enters crisis mode, the familiar chorus begins: sack the NFF president; dissolve the board; bring in new people; start afresh. But where has that taken us?

We do not have a single enduring football structure, or world-class facilities. The lack of a properly functioning grassroots development system and the absence of a sustainable football economy appear to compound our misery. We keep changing the occupants of the house without repairing the house.

That is why I do not subscribe to the clamour by Shehu Dikko and others seeking to take over Nigerian football.

Those who have been part of the system – including Dikko – that produced today’s crisis should not simply return under another arrangement and promise us another “new beginning”.

Nigerians deserve to know what went wrong, who is responsible and, most importantly, what structural reforms will prevent a repetition.

The question is not merely whether Ibrahim Gusau, the Nigerian Football Federation (NFF) President, and the board and should go. The bigger question is: what system replaces them?

There is no escaping the issue of accountability. The House of Representatives has previously moved to investigate allegations concerning about $25 million in FIFA and CAF grants received by the NFF between 2015 and 2025.

More recently, the NFF itself confirmed that documents relating to a ₦12 billion Federal Government intervention fund are with the EFCC and ICPC as part of ongoing investigations.

Importantly, no wrongdoing has been established against any individual merely because an investigation exists, or that stories of alleged corruption are always what we hear.

But the fact that such a substantial public intervention is under investigation makes transparency imperative.

There have also been media investigations raising questions about payments from NFF funds into private accounts.

One investigation reported at least ₦152.6 million in payments to private accounts linked to officials, staff and associates between 2018 and 2026. These allegations require proper investigation, not political spin or the influence of godfathers.

The NFF, on its part, says its accounts are audited and that FIFA and CAF funds are tied to specific purposes and subject to monitoring. Its 2025 Congress approved audited financial statements for 2024 and passed a vote of confidence in the Gusau-led board. That is precisely why Nigerians need independent, verifiable accountability, not competing narratives.

If the books are clean, open them, and if the money was properly spent, show us. If there were failures, identify them, and if officials are culpable, let the law take its course. That is how a serious football economy works.

Government must also accept responsibility for creating a system that encourages dependency.

Why should government be paying the Super Eagles’ win bonuses? Why should a national football federation continually return to government for money to perform its core responsibilities? Why should taxpayers repeatedly finance a professional sport that possesses enormous commercial potential? Questions that need answers.

This is definitely not an argument for abandoning sports – it is a business case for changing the role of government.

My view is that government should provide infrastructure, establish the regulatory framework, protect the integrity of competitions and create an enabling environment for private investment.

Government should not be the perpetual financier of professional football. This Father Christmas mentality must end. Look at the state of our sporting infrastructure and see the shame we have brought upon ourselves because of poor visionary leadership at the helm.

CAF’s rejection of several traditional home grounds for Nigerian clubs in the 2026/27 continental competitions is a humiliating reminder that Nigeria still lacks enough facilities that meet international standards.

Rangers, Rivers United and Shooting Stars were among the clubs whose traditional venues were not approved, leaving them to adopt alternative grounds.

The Federal Government itself has acknowledged the problem, approving major rehabilitation work at the Moshood Abiola National Stadium in Abuja because its condition has limited its use by national teams.

If we didn’t have the Godswill Akpabio International Stadium, the Nest of Champions owned by the Akwa Ibom State government in Uyo, where would the Super Eagles have been playing their FIFA-graded home matches?

This is the absurdity of Nigerian sports: we can spend billions managing crises but cannot consistently maintain the infrastructure that would prevent them.

Morocco offers one of the best examples in Africa of what a country’s sports infrastructure should look like. Perhaps that explains why the country has a “strong hold” on CAF.

Secondary-school sports have virtually disappeared as a serious talent-development pipeline. Adults sometimes compete in sporting events designed for children; grassroots competitions are sporadic; facilities are in a permanent state of decay, and leagues struggle.

When an athlete or team produces an accidental success, we celebrate it as if it were the product of a functioning system. That is clearly not the case – it is usually an outlier.

The reality is that we are trying to climb the tree from the top and then wonder why we keep falling. The National Sports Commission under Chairman Shehu Dikko must therefore act – and act now.

The Commission has a historic opportunity to redefine the relationship between government and Nigerian sports. Its stated ambition of creating a sustainable sports economy cannot remain another slogan – it must become a measurable programme of reform.

The first step should be to distinguish clearly between government’s responsibility and the sports industry’s responsibility.

Government should fund infrastructure; support grassroots and school sports, and provide a carefully structured seed funding to revive dead or dying leagues.

Government should also use the National Lottery Trust Fund more strategically. Nigeria already has a mechanism specifically designed to support good causes, including sports.

The Lottery Trust Fund states that 20 percent of lottery proceeds is allocated to the Trust Fund and that sports will receive 20 percent of the Fund’s sectoral allocation.

Why are we not using this mechanism more aggressively and transparently to rebuild grassroots sports? Why are we not creating sustainable facilities instead of endlessly funding short-term participation? Why are we not demanding measurable outcomes from every naira invested?

The United Kingdom provides an instructive lesson – not because the British government simply “funded the Premier League”, as is sometimes suggested, but because football evolved into a powerful commercial ecosystem supported by regulation, investment, broadcasting, infrastructure and private capital.

The Premier League’s revenues grew dramatically from about £170 million in 1991/92 to £5.15 billion in 2018/19, and close to £7 billion in 2024/25.

That is the direction Nigeria should be heading because it is possible for sports to become big business.

Let the NFF president who wants to lead Nigerian football tell the Congress how he intends to raise money to run football without perpetual government spoon-feeding.

In addition, let every candidate publish a five-year commercialisation plan and explain how they will attract sponsors.

How will they grow broadcast revenue? How will they improve match-day revenue? How will they develop licensing and merchandising? Do they even understand the business case of turning sports into a profitable enterprise?

How much revenue can the domestic league generate? Can we make Nigerian football attractive to investors? Can football administrators guarantee transparency? And, above all, how will they spend other people’s money? More questions without answers.

Corporate Nigeria will invest in sports when it sees stability, accountability, transparency and commercial opportunity.

No serious investor wants to enter a dysfunctional system where rules change arbitrarily, accountability is weak and political influence determines outcomes.

Corporate sponsors want to sit at a table with people who understand sports business and how to scale opportunities.

A football model without processes, predictable regulations, audited accounts and measurable returns will not be supported by sponsors as we see in other parts of the world.

Potential corporate sponsors want institutions with safe guards, not personalities. Government must take the back seat always.

This is where the National Sports Commission must demonstrate leadership. Dikko should resist the temptation to become another political centre of gravity in Nigerian sports.

The Commission must not simply replace one form of interference with another. Instead, it should strengthen federations while holding them accountable without government control.

Chairman Dikko, the answer to our challenges in sports is good governance, transparency and accountability, which we can also describe as “responsible stewardship”.

All the contending forces and political factions aiming for the nation’s football Glass House in order to take over the NFF should show us their plans for institutional reforms.

Meanwhile, let me repeat myself: government should only provide the seed money, infrastructure and enabling environment for sports to develop and thrive in Nigeria, and then back off.

If the environment is right, private capital will come. If the rules are clear, sponsors will come, and if accounts are transparent, investors will come.

It is also evident that if the leagues are properly organised, broadcasters will show interest, just as fans will return when the competitions are credible.

This is because our passion for sports, especially football, has turned into a huge movement of friends and fans.

Then, of course, the money will follow. It is not rocket science. Nigeria does not lack talent – what we lack are systems and the institutional confidence to unlock commercial opportunities.

The current football crisis is therefore bigger than Gusau and Dikko. It is also bigger than the NFF. It is a crisis of a model that has failed and that is the reform Nigeria needs.