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Opinion

Tinubu’s Biggest Opponent Is Not Obi or Atiku… It’s Tinubu

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Tinubu

By Moses Braimah

“A government that spends more time explaining the opposition than explaining its achievements may already know where its real problem lies.”

Nigeria is a fascinating country. 

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Explain it to someone and watch them nod eagerly, only for them to confess moments later: “I still don’t understand.” If you claim to fully grasp Nigeria, you are either a genius or nobody explained it properly.

Take our politics. 

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu sits in Aso Rock with every lever of power firmly in hand: constitutional authority, federal machinery, a ruling party that controls the National Assembly, the loyalty of most governors, ministerial appointments, security agencies, and the full weight of incumbency. He has time, plenty of it, before 2027.

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Also read: Kwankwaso Condemns Response to Obi, El-Rufai Cases

Yet somehow, Peter Obi still haunts the dreams of many in the corridors of power. How?

Even if we accept the official narrative without question; INEC declared Tinubu winner, the judiciary affirmed it, case closed – the reality remains: Obi came third, Atiku second. Simple arithmetic.

So why does every political conversation treat Peter Obi like the man in Aso Rock and Tinubu like the opposition candidate campaigning from the streets? Something is seriously off balance.

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President Tinubu, please note. The Real Opposition Lives in the Market.

Tinubu’s greatest political opponent is not Peter Obi.  It is not Atiku Abubakar.

It is not social media, the NDC Party, or the ADC.  It is the ordinary Nigerian , the woman haggling for tomatoes and rice in the market, the father staring at fuel prices and school fees every single morning.  That voter is the real opposition. You cannot arrest her. You cannot suspend him. You cannot drown that frustration in press releases.

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The electorate has a simple, unforgiving logic: when happy, they reward. When hurting, they look elsewhere. Politics is not more complicated than that.

Please don’t forget, talk is cheap. But Nigerians want evidence.

Nigerians have perfected two arts: listening carefully, and comparing what they hear with what they feel in their pockets and bellies. Government speaks of reforms. The people speak of hardship. Government talks of laying foundations. The people ask, “Foundations for how long?”  Government preaches patience. The people reply, “Na patience we don dey chop since 1999?”

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Nobody denies that fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate reforms were economically inevitable. Many experts agree. But economic theory does not fill plates or pay bills. Economists celebrate policy. Citizens celebrate results. No one cooks textbooks for dinner.

One interesting thing is that, the Tinubu Propaganda Department is working overtime.

Listen to some government defenders and you’ll be entertained. Instead of showcasing tangible improvements in living standards, they expend enormous energy attacking Obi, Atiku, or whoever is trending.

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One wonders: if the report card is that impressive, why spend the entire PTA meeting discussing another student’s failures? Show us your results. Instead, the propaganda machine runs non-stop. Every criticism is labelled “political.” Every complaint is “sponsored.” Every protest is “opposition.” Every dissenting economist is “anti-government.” Every uncomfortable headline is a “conspiracy.”

Even a generator deserves time to rest.

The big question, who exactly is Tinubu afraid of? The President commands: The power of incumbency, Federal resources, Over 30 aligned governors , The National Assembly, Strategic appointments, Security agencies, and Nationwide party structures.

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Add the vocal defenders: Bayo Onanuga, Daniel Bwala, Seyi Tinubu, Godswill Akpabio, Reno Omokri, Femi Fani-Kayode, Chief Priest, MC Oluomo, the Iyaloja network, political influencers, media allies, strategists, content creators, and even that your uncle quarrelling on WhatsApp every morning.

Yet everyone behaves as if one man with a microphone somewhere is about to topple the government. Why?

Now listen and listen very carefully. The Mirror is the Real Opposition

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Perhaps the government is staring in the wrong direction. Peter Obi and Atiku are not the threat. Their supporters can rally, grant interviews, trend hashtags, and make videos, that is democracy. But none of them will decide Tinubu’s fate in 2027.

The real deciders are the trader in Ariaria, the mechanic in Kaduna, the teacher in Osogbo, the banker in Lagos, the farmer in Benue, the civil servant in Enugu, the unemployed graduate in Kano.

When these people begin to say, “Yes, life is genuinely getting better,” the campaign is already won. Until then, every billboard is mere decoration.

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Do you know that even Lagos is trying to tell us something? Supporters love pointing to Tinubu’s Lagos legacy. Fair enough, the city has grown remarkably. But politics has a long and stubborn memory.

If Lagosians were completely satisfied after decades of dominance, elections there would not be growing more competitive. But they are not. That should be a loud signal.  The last presidential result in Lagos says it all.

Nigeria is thirty times more complex than Lagos. If your own political fortress is becoming contested despite years of control, perhaps the answer is not to shout louder. Perhaps it is to govern better.

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Always remember, good governance is the Best Campaign Director. Some assume that Tinubu’s perceived political experience guarantees victory. Politics does not work that way. Experience only wins when it delivers visible outcomes.

People are not demanding perfection. They are asking for evidence, reasons to believe that tomorrow will be better than today. That is not too much to ask.

My friendly piece of advice to reflect on. Ironically, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar may be doing this government a greater service than some of its loudest supporters. They keep reminding it that Nigerians are watching.

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Opposition is not the disease. It is often the thermometer. Smashing the thermometer has never cured a fever.

Mr. President still has time, more than enough.

If governance becomes more visible than propaganda… If performance begins speaking louder than spokespersons… If ordinary Nigerians start feeling genuine relief…

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Then 2027 may prove far easier than many now fear.

But if the administration continues treating every challenge as though it wears Obi or Atiku’s face, it may one day wake up to discover its real opponent had no political party.

It was simply public opinion. And public opinion, unlike politicians, cannot be negotiated with.

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As we say in Nigeria: “Na person wey wear shoe know where e dey pinch.”

Also read: President Tinubu Pays Glowing Tribute to Tunji Bello at 65

The people know exactly where Nigeria is pinching them. The sooner government listens to that pain instead of arguing with those describing it, the better its chances, not just at the next election, but in crafting a legacy that outlives elections.

A word, they say, is enough for the wise.

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Opinion

Tegbe’s 24-Hour Energy Zones and the Shift From Megawatts to Money

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Tegbe

 By Sufuyan Ojeifo,

There is a point at which a country’s electricity problem ceases to be merely an electricity problem. It becomes a problem of economic geography.

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Also read: Everton Celebrates Nigeria’s 66th Independence With Football Legends

Where can factories operate with confidence? Where can businesses plan beyond the next appearance of a generator? Where can hospitals, schools, technology companies, markets and households begin to organise their lives around the reasonable expectation that electricity will be there?

This is the thinking behind the latest initiative from the Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, to develop what the Federal Government calls Energy Zones – defined corridors where homes, businesses and industries could receive stable, 24-hour electricity.

The proposed zones cover the Lagos axis, the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano corridor and the Enugu-Port Harcourt corridor. Tegbe’s latest move is a meeting with selected electricity distribution companies to begin working through what it would take to make the idea real.

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At first glance, it sounds like another promise of uninterrupted electricity in a country that has heard too many such promises. However, there is something more consequential in the architecture of the proposal.

Tegbe is asking Nigerians to look at the power problem differently.

For years, the national conversation has been dominated by generation. How many megawatts are being produced? How much can the transmission grid carry? How many generating plants are working? These are important questions. But electricity does not become useful simply because it has been generated.

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It must travel. It must be received. It must be distributed. And ultimately, somebody must be able to use it. That last part has often been treated as the end of the conversation when, in reality, it is where the economic value of electricity begins.

Tegbe has put the point plainly. The constraint is not limited to generation and transmission; it also includes how much electricity can be taken up and delivered at the distribution end.

The proposed Energy Zones are intended to address precisely that gap while improving commercial demand and the revenue performance of the distribution companies.

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There is an important idea here.

Nigeria does not necessarily have to wait for every weakness in the electricity value chain to be solved simultaneously before beginning to create pockets of reliability.

A country of more than 200 million people, with enormous differences in industrial activity, population density and commercial demand, may have to proceed through carefully selected economic corridors while the wider system is repaired.

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This is not an argument for abandoning the national grid. It is an argument for making the grid more economically purposeful.

The three corridors selected by the Ministry are revealing. Lagos and its adjoining industrial axis represent perhaps the country’s most concentrated commercial and industrial demand.

The Abuja-Kaduna-Kano corridor connects the political capital with major commercial and industrial centres in the North. Enugu-Port Harcourt links important commercial, manufacturing and energy-producing communities in the South-East and South-South.

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These are not simply lines on a power map. They are lines on Nigeria’s economic map. That distinction matters.

For too long, Nigerians have experienced electricity largely as a household inconvenience. The light goes off. The generator comes on. A business buys diesel. A manufacturer factors self-generation into production costs. A hospital makes contingency arrangements.

A young entrepreneur learns, often painfully, that the real price of electricity is not what appears on the bill but what it costs to keep the business alive when the supply fails.

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A reliable electricity corridor changes that equation.

If a factory knows that a particular industrial cluster has dependable power, investment decisions begin to change.

If a commercial district can plan around predictable electricity, operating costs become easier to manage.

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If businesses can depend on supply for most of the day, generators can move from being the first line of defence to being what they were always supposed to be: backup.

This is where Tegbe’s technocratic instincts may prove significant.

His background is not that of a career power-sector operator. His professional experience has largely been in consulting, fiscal and economic reform, institutional transformation and advisory work. That background has been visible in his early approach to the ministry – diagnosis, audits, financial questions, infrastructure bottlenecks, and attempts to identify where one part of the system is preventing another from functioning properly.

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His Energy Zones proposal fits that pattern. It treats the electricity market less as a single machine waiting for one dramatic repair and more as a system of interconnected constraints that can be isolated, diagnosed and addressed.

Tegbe had already identified the three corridors as priorities for grid stabilisation, with technical audits intended to establish the condition of critical infrastructure. The latest engagement with DisCos suggests that the idea is now moving beyond technical diagnosis towards the more difficult question of how distribution will work within those corridors.

That is where the hard work begins.

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A 24-hour power zone cannot be created by a press statement. It requires generation that is available when needed, transmission capacity that can carry it, distribution infrastructure capable of receiving it, transformers and feeders that can withstand the load, metering that properly captures consumption, customers willing and able to pay, and a commercial structure in which the various participants have an incentive to keep the system working.

It also requires protection. Vandalism and energy theft do not respect administrative boundaries. Neither do faulty equipment, unpaid bills or poor collection practices. Tegbe himself has acknowledged that the sector’s problems reinforce one another. Weak collections affect the market. Market weakness affects maintenance and gas payments. Unreliable supply in turn depresses collections.

This is why the Energy Zone experiment, if it is to succeed, must be judged by more than the number of hours electricity is available.

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The real test will be whether reliability begins to produce economic consequences. Does industrial output increase? Do businesses spend less on self-generation? Does investment respond? Do DisCos collect more because customers are receiving a service they can trust? Does the government recover enough value from improved commercial activity to justify further infrastructure investment?

Those are the questions that should eventually accompany the glossy language of 24-hour power.

And there is another question that Tegbe and the Federal Government will have to confront: what happens outside the zones?

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Nigeria cannot become a collection of electrically privileged corridors surrounded by communities waiting indefinitely for their turn.

The logic of concentrating investment in high-demand areas can be defended economically, especially if the resulting commercial activity strengthens the wider electricity market.

But the strategy will ultimately have to demonstrate how successful zones become stepping stones towards broader reliability.

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That is the difference between an experiment and a system.

There is also a danger in admiring the architecture of reform from the comfort of an office.

It has to be said here that the statement issued by the minister’s media aide was long on ambition and conspicuously short on the details that matter. No timeline. No capacity targets. No specific investment figures. It is the kind of announcement that has, historically, been the precursor to nothing at all.

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So Nigerians should watch the idea with interest, but also with the healthy scepticism that comes from decades of promises about electricity.

The minister deserves a measure of credit for at least diagnosing an important part of the illness.

For once, the conversation has shifted from the head to the feet – from generation to distribution, from megawatts to money.

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At the same time, the Nigerian people have been given blueprints before. They have learned to admire the drawings while the building crumbles.

The Energy Zones remain a proposal. The government has not yet announced the detailed capacity requirements, implementation timetable or precise infrastructure investments that would make 24-hour supply possible.

That is not necessarily a fatal flaw. It may simply mean the idea is still being worked out.

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But it does mean that the language of 24-hour power should be treated as an aspiration until it is matched by the machinery of implementation.

Yet the proposal deserves attention because it reflects a potentially important shift in the way the power problem is being conceived.

Nigeria may not fix its electricity crisis in one heroic sweep. It may have to build reliability corridor by corridor, demand centre by demand centre, and economic cluster by economic cluster.

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There is nothing inherently glamorous about such work. It is engineering, finance, regulation, distribution and relentless attention to the weak link in the chain. But perhaps that is precisely the point.

The country has spent decades waiting for the great national electricity breakthrough.

Tegbe’s emerging approach suggests something less dramatic and potentially more practical: make a few economically critical parts of the system work properly, learn from them, strengthen the model, and expand it.

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The success of that approach will ultimately be measured not in speeches or megawatts, but in what Nigerians can do with the electricity when it arrives.

Does the factory run a second shift? Does the business hire more workers? Does the hospital keep its equipment running through the night? Does the young entrepreneur stop budgeting for diesel and start budgeting for growth?

Also read: Everton Celebrates Nigeria’s 66th Independence With Football Legends

That is where the real power story begins. And that is the standard against which Tegbe’s Energy Zones should ultimately be judged: not by whether 24-hour power sounds impressive in a press release, but by whether the lights stay on long enough for Nigerians to build something with them.

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