Bola Bolawole warns of a 2027 election credibility crisis in Nigeria, highlighting poverty, illiteracy and political divisions while calling for sweeping reformFormer PUNCH editor and public affairs analyst Bola Bolawole has warned of a deepening 2027 election credibility crisis in Nigeria, questioning the country’s democratic preparedness ahead of the general elections scheduled for January and February 2027.

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In a commentary published in New Telegraph on Wednesday, 4 November 2026, Bolawole argued that poverty, illiteracy, political rivalry and institutional weaknesses continue to undermine the prospects of credible elections.

Bolawole’s assessment comes as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) prepares for presidential and National Assembly elections on 16 January 2027, followed by governorship and state assembly polls on 6 February.

The former newspaper editor expressed concern that the substantial financial resources committed to elections could produce little public confidence if longstanding problems remain unresolved.

INEC has proposed ₦873.78 billion for the 2027 general elections, according to its budget presentation to the National Assembly in February. The estimate covers operational, administrative, technology, capital and miscellaneous costs.

Bolawole questioned whether such expenditure would translate into meaningful democratic progress, arguing that the electoral process has repeatedly left Nigerians divided and dissatisfied.

“The elections will gulp over a trillion Naira; yet, its unfortunate outcome can be determined a priori!” he wrote, expressing concern about the cost of elections and the possibility of disputed outcomes.

His criticism extends beyond INEC to the wider network of government agencies, security institutions, political parties, election observers and judicial bodies involved in the electoral process.

Bolawole argued that the financial demands of election administration, political campaigns, vote-buying and post-election litigation place considerable pressure on public resources, particularly in a country facing persistent economic hardship.

He also questioned the ability of electoral technology alone to resolve Nigeria’s credibility concerns, noting that successive innovations have not entirely eliminated allegations of irregularities.

The columnist’s scepticism, however, comes against the backdrop of significant changes to Nigeria’s electoral framework.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu signed the Electoral Act 2026 into law on 18 February, replacing the 2022 legislation and introducing new provisions on electronic transmission of results, voter accreditation, party primaries and electoral administration.

Under Section 60(3) of the new law, polling-unit results are required to be electronically transmitted to INEC’s Result Viewing Portal, known as IReV. The legislation also provides for the use of signed physical result sheets where electronic transmission fails because of communication problems.

The reforms are intended to strengthen transparency, although legal analysts have identified concerns surrounding the communication-failure exception and the practical implementation of electronic transmission.

Bolawole maintained that technological improvements would not be sufficient without broader changes in political culture and institutional conduct.

“We cannot continue to do things the same way and expect a different result,” he wrote, arguing that Nigeria must confront the deeper causes of electoral distrust.

The commentary also revisits the legacy of the June 12, 1993 presidential election, widely acclaimed as one of Nigeria’s freest and fairest elections before its annulment by the military government of General Ibrahim Babangida.

Bolawole described the election as a missed opportunity for democratic consolidation, suggesting that Nigeria would need another extraordinary moment to establish a consistently credible electoral system.

He further compared Nigeria’s democratic development with the gradual expansion of voting rights in Britain and the political evolution of the United States.

Drawing on these examples, Bolawole argued that Nigeria adopted universal adult suffrage without sufficiently preparing its institutions and electorate for the responsibilities of democratic participation.

One of the most contentious aspects of his argument was his proposal to introduce educational, age and property qualifications for voting, alongside tax-payment requirements.

Bolawole suggested that such measures could reduce vote-buying and encourage greater civic responsibility, particularly among voters facing economic hardship.

However, the proposals raise significant concerns about political inclusion and the rights of poorer and less-educated citizens. Universal suffrage is a central democratic principle, and restricting voting rights on the basis of education, wealth or tax status could disenfranchise large sections of the population rather than address the structural conditions that make voters vulnerable to inducement.

His argument also places considerable emphasis on the responsibility of Nigeria’s political elite.

Bolawole reflected on the rivalries among the country’s founding leaders, including Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, Nnamdi Azikiwe and Obafemi Awolowo, arguing that political divisions contributed to instability during the First Republic.

Nigeria gained independence on 1 October 1960, but the First Republic ended following the military coup of 15 January 1966, less than six years later.

Independent National Electoral Commission

The columnist suggested that stronger elite consensus, a more vibrant middle class and sustained investment in education could help create the conditions for democratic stability.

He concluded that credible elections would remain difficult to achieve without addressing poverty, illiteracy and the weakening of the middle class.

“Any talk of hope, renewed or not, will be ‘verloren hoop’ (forlorn hope)!” Bolawole wrote, reflecting his pessimistic outlook on the country’s democratic prospects.

Despite the concerns raised in the commentary, the 2027 elections will take place under a revised legal framework and an electoral timetable already published by INEC. The commission has continued preparations, including the publication of candidate information and election-related guidelines.

The central question, therefore, is whether the new provisions, institutional preparations and public scrutiny can translate into elections that Nigerians consider credible.

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Bolawole’s warning highlights the wider challenge facing the country: restoring public confidence in a democratic process that requires not only effective technology and adequate funding, but also accountable institutions, political restraint and the protection of citizens’ voting rights.