Nigeria crude oil supply to refiners fell short by 55% in 2025, risking the country’s refining targets and deepening dependence on imported fuel

Nigeria crude oil distribution to refiners remains a pressing issue in 2025, as newly released data shows that local processors received only 67.6 million barrels between January and August—well below their required volumes.

Also read: Nigeria Crude Oil Exports to US Earn $2.21bn in 2025

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) confirmed the figures, revealing that just 45 per cent of the requested crude was actually delivered to modular and state-owned refineries, including those operated by Waltersmith, Aradel Energy, and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

Speaking in Abuja, the NUPRC’s Head of Media and Strategic Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, said the deliveries were made in line with the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO).

But refiners argue the reality undermines Nigeria’s push for refining self-sufficiency.

Between January and August 2025, local refiners requested 123.4 million barrels to operate at full capacity.

What they received—67.6 million barrels—was 55.8 million barrels short.

This persistent gap, according to analysts, may derail efforts to reduce Nigeria’s heavy reliance on imported petroleum products.

Under the DCSO framework, producers are legally required to reserve a portion of their crude for domestic refining before exporting.

But enforcement remains weak, with compliance often overshadowed by economic incentives favouring foreign buyers.

Crude producers are reportedly reluctant to supply domestic refiners, preferring to sell on the international market where dollar-denominated payments offer more profitability.

This has left local refiners grappling with currency volatility and uncompetitive pricing.

Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, criticised the current model, saying:
“The willing buyer, willing seller principle was meant to drive competition. But it’s become a mechanism that pushes domestic refiners out of the market.”

He added that while the policy aims to support local capacity, refiners are effectively priced out of their legal entitlements, unable to match foreign currency offers from international traders.

Despite Nigeria’s rising production, which hit 1.63 million barrels per day in August, more than 80 per cent of output still heads abroad.

This export-heavy focus continues to limit the growth of domestic refining infrastructure.

The NUPRC insists its allocation of over 67 million barrels within eight months reflects its commitment.

But refiners say partial supply falls short of what’s needed to keep operations sustainable, especially after significant capital investments.

Industry experts warn that unless Nigeria urgently addresses the supply gap through stronger regulation, transparent pricing, and targeted incentives, the country’s refining revolution could stall—leaving the import bill unchanged and local jobs at risk.

Also read: Nigeria Crude Oil Exports to US Earn $2.21bn in 2025

The debate over Nigeria crude oil supply to refiners now sits at the intersection of law, economics, and energy policy, with stakeholders urging the government to back words with decisive action.