Domestic refineries supplied 7.41bn litres between January and July, while petrol imports fell 62.3% year-on-year despite a sharp rebound in June and July

Nigeria’s domestic refineries, led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, supplied 7.41 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit between January and July 2026, accounting for 74.9 per cent of the country’s petrol supply and marking a dramatic shift away from imports.

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The latest analysis of monthly data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority shows that domestic petrol supply increased by approximately 3.14 billion litres, or 73.5 per cent, compared with the 4.27 billion litres supplied by local refineries during the corresponding period of 2025.

Petrol imports moved in the opposite direction. Imported PMS fell from approximately 6.58 billion litres in the first seven months of 2025 to about 2.48 billion litres during the same period in 2026, representing a decline of roughly 4.10 billion litres, or 62.3 per cent.

The figures mark a striking reversal in Nigeria’s fuel supply structure.

Between January and July 2025, imported petrol accounted for approximately 60.6 per cent of the country’s 10.85 billion litres of total PMS supply, while domestic refineries contributed 39.4 per cent.

One year later, domestic refineries had increased their share by more than 35 percentage points, supplying nearly three out of every four litres of petrol consumed or supplied within the period.

The shift has been driven principally by the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, whose nameplate capacity is 650,000 barrels per day, alongside output from other domestic refineries.

However, the seven-month figures also reveal an important weakness in Nigeria’s transition towards domestic refining. Local production has increased substantially but remains volatile, leaving imports to fill supply gaps when refinery output falls.

In July alone, domestic refineries supplied an average of 25.8 million litres of petrol per day, compared with approximately 19.7 million litres from imports.

Based on the 31 days in July, that amounted to about 799.8 million litres from domestic refineries and 610.7 million litres from imported products.

Domestic refining therefore remained the larger source of petrol even as imports staged a significant recovery during the month.

The July figures extended a sharp deterioration in local supply after a stronger first half of the year. Domestic refineries supplied approximately 6.61 billion litres during the first six months, while imports contributed about 1.87 billion litres.

Domestic output reached its seven-month peak in May, when average supply rose to 41.5 million litres per day.

But the gains were subsequently reversed.

Domestic supply fell 21.7 per cent to 32.5 million litres per day in June before dropping another 20.6 per cent to 25.8 million litres per day in July, the lowest monthly level recorded in 2026.

The pattern contrasts with 2025, when local refining output followed a largely downward trajectory after February.

Domestic supply increased from 19.1 million litres per day in January 2025 to 24.8 million litres in February before declining for five consecutive months. It fell to 22.9 million litres in March, 21.5 million litres in April, 18.5 million litres in May, 18.1 million litres in June and 16.5 million litres in July.

Despite the much stronger domestic performance in 2026, overall petrol supply was lower.

Nigeria received approximately 9.89 billion litres of PMS between January and July 2026, compared with 10.85 billion litres during the corresponding period of 2025. That represents a reduction of about 957 million litres, or 8.8 per cent.

The decline has raised questions about the sustainability of the country’s transition from an import-dependent fuel market to one dominated by domestic refining.

The sharp rise in imports in June and July has been particularly significant.

As domestic refinery supply weakened, imported petrol returned in greater volumes after the regulator issued import licences, providing an additional source of supply for marketers and consumers.

The development has also intensified the debate over whether Nigeria should continue permitting large-scale petrol imports while domestic refining capacity expands.

The Dangote refinery has previously argued that the continued importation of petrol creates uncertainty for local producers and makes it more difficult to plan production and inventories efficiently.

In a statement on Wednesday, the refinery said imported PMS accounted for approximately 43 per cent of fuel supplied to Nigeria in July, despite its ability to meet and exceed domestic demand.

It warned that holding large inventories while imported products continued entering the market was becoming commercially unsustainable.

“As a responsible energy provider, we have always endeavoured to keep adequate reserves to satisfy local demand at all times,” the refinery said.

“However, in an environment where significant volumes of imported PMS continue to enter the market through licences issued by the regulator, and where there is limited visibility on future import volumes, it becomes commercially unsustainable to continue holding excess inventory indefinitely.”

Dangote said excess petrol would increasingly have to be exported to regional and international markets where it could be absorbed, stressing that higher exports should not be interpreted as an inability to meet Nigerian demand.

The refinery’s position comes amid continuing concerns over access to crude oil and foreign exchange, both of which are crucial to maintaining high utilisation at a large domestic refinery.

In a recent report, Bloomberg quoted Dangote Refinery Group Vice-President Devakumar V.G. Edwin as saying the company was exporting as much product as possible because of difficulties accessing sufficient dollars to purchase feedstock.

“We are exporting as much as possible,” Edwin was quoted as saying. “We are not able to get enough dollars from the Central Bank, and it doesn’t make any sense to be selling the products in naira and not being able to buy dollars.”

The issue has also attracted criticism from independent petroleum marketers, who have questioned the continued approval of petrol imports.

National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, argued that imported fuel had become more expensive than petrol supplied by Dangote Refinery.

“The recent import licences, which were expected to serve as a guide and a check on the prices of petroleum products refined locally, are not yielding the results we expected,” Ukadike told The PUNCH.

He said marketers had been surprised that imported petrol was selling at about N1,350 per litre, which he said was higher than Dangote’s prevailing price.

The debate reflects the delicate balance facing the Federal Government.

Import licences can provide a buffer when local production declines, helping to guard against supply shortages. But sustained imports can also weaken the market position of domestic refiners and complicate investment planning as Nigeria seeks to build a more self-sufficient downstream petroleum sector.

The NMDPRA figures nevertheless demonstrate how dramatically the country’s supply structure has changed since Dangote Refinery began ramping up production.

In seven months, locally refined petrol rose from 39.4 per cent of total supply to 74.9 per cent, while the import share plunged from 60.6 per cent to 25.1 per cent.

That transformation represents one of the most consequential changes in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market in decades.

But the July figures offer a reminder that capacity alone does not guarantee consistent output.

Reliable crude supply, access to foreign exchange, efficient refinery operations and clearer coordination of import volumes will determine whether domestic refining can sustain its dominant position.

For consumers and policymakers, the central question is no longer simply whether Nigeria can refine its own petrol.

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The more pressing challenge is whether the country can maintain sufficient and predictable local production to make reduced dependence on imports a lasting reality.