UN report projects Africa’s growth at 4% in 2026, with East Africa leading, but warns high debt and fiscal pressures remain significant risks

Africa’s economic outlook is set to strengthen over the next two years, with growth projected at 4.0 per cent in 2026 and 4.1 per cent in 2027, according to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 (WESP 2026) report.

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The report, unveiled at the headquarters of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) in Addis Ababa, indicates a gradual improvement from growth rates of 3.5 per cent in 2024 and an estimated 3.9 per cent in 2025.

The rebound reflects improving macroeconomic stability in several of Africa’s largest economies, which has supported investment flows and consumer spending across the continent.

Regionally, East Africa is expected to remain the fastest-growing subregion, with expansion forecast at 5.8 per cent in 2026.

West Africa is projected to grow by 4.4 per cent, North Africa by 4.1 per cent, Central Africa by 3.0 per cent, and Southern Africa by 2.0 per cent.

Despite the positive outlook, the report highlighted persistent fiscal pressures.

Africa’s average public debt-to-GDP ratio stood at approximately 63 per cent in 2025, with interest payments projected to absorb nearly 15 per cent of government revenues, limiting fiscal space for development priorities.

The ECA called for renewed multilateral cooperation, stronger global policy coordination, and reforms to the international financial architecture to address mounting debt, climate-related shocks, and financing gaps.

Commenting on the findings, Director of the ECA’s Macroeconomics, Finance and Governance Division, Mr Stephen Karingi, cautioned that Africa’s recovery remains fragile.

“High debt-servicing costs, limited fiscal buffers, and volatile commodity prices continue to pose risks to inclusive and sustainable growth,” he said.

Global conditions remain challenging, with world output forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2026, slightly below the 2.8 per cent projected for 2025 and under the pre-pandemic average of 3.2 per cent, Karingi noted.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted rising economic, geopolitical, and technological tensions, warning that many developing economies continue to struggle, with slow progress on Sustainable Development Goals.

Hopestone Chavula, Officer-in-Charge of the ECA’s Macroeconomic Analysis Section, stressed that Africa’s recovery is uneven, with East Africa driving growth while other regions face structural weaknesses and vulnerability to external shocks.

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The report presents a cautiously optimistic view for Africa’s economic trajectory, emphasising the need for sustained reforms and global support to convert projected growth into long-term development gains.