China’s population has declined for a fourth straight year after births fell to a record low in 2025, intensifying concerns over ageing, workforce shortages and long-term economic growth

China’s population declined again in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of demographic contraction and deepening concerns about the country’s rapidly ageing society and long-term economic outlook.

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Official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that registered births fell sharply to 7.92 million last year, the lowest figure recorded since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

This represented a 17 percent drop from 2024, when 9.54 million births were recorded.

The country’s total population decreased by 3.39 million to about 1.405 billion, a faster contraction than the previous year.

Deaths rose to 11.31 million in 2025, up from 10.93 million in 2024, further widening the natural population decline.

Demographers say the data reflects a structural shift rather than a temporary slowdown.

Yi Fuxian, a population expert at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, noted that birth numbers have fallen to levels not seen for centuries, when China’s population was far smaller than it is today.

The decline has continued despite government efforts to encourage childbearing.

In 2024, Beijing earmarked about 90 billion yuan for a nationwide childcare subsidy for children under the age of three.

Authorities have also announced plans to expand health insurance coverage to include all childbirth-related costs, including fertility treatments.

However, many young adults remain hesitant to start families.

Rising living costs, job insecurity, delayed marriages and slower economic growth continue to influence family planning decisions.

Research by a Chinese population think tank estimates that the average cost of raising a child to age 18 is about 538,000 yuan, more than six times China’s GDP per capita, with costs significantly higher in major cities.

China’s demographic challenge is further complicated by decades of strict birth control policies.

Although the one-child policy ended in 2017, it left a smaller pool of people of childbearing age and reinforced preferences for smaller families.

At the same time, the population is ageing rapidly. People aged 60 and above now make up roughly 23 percent of the population, with projections suggesting the number could rise to about 400 million by 2035.

This trend is expected to shrink the workforce while placing increasing strain on pension systems and healthcare services.

In response, the government has begun raising retirement ages for both men and women.

Marriage trends have offered little relief. The number of couples registering marriages fell by around 20 percent in 2024, the steepest decline on record.

While a mid-2025 policy allowing couples to marry outside their place of residence led to a temporary rise in registrations later in the year, analysts warn that any impact on birth rates is likely to be limited.

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As China grapples with its demographic slowdown, policymakers face growing pressure to balance population support measures with broader economic reforms aimed at restoring confidence among younger generations.