Nigeria economy projection to $1tn by 2030 faces hurdles as Afrinvest cites inflation, oil output, and power sector woes

The Nigeria economy projection of reaching $1 trillion by 2030, declared by President Bola Tinubu at the recent BRICS summit in Brazil, is now under scrutiny as Afrinvest casts doubt on its feasibility.

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Tinubu had expressed optimism that the economy would quadruple from its current $251 billion size to $1 trillion, banking on reforms and GDP rebasing. He further projected real GDP growth of 7 percent by 2027.

However, Afrinvest argues that the path to such ambitious targets is obstructed by inflation, sluggish oil production, and persistent power sector challenges.

Despite a rebased GDP figure of N372.8tn in 2024 and revenue mobilisation gains, the firm said the fundamentals remain weak.

Nigeria’s GDP in dollar terms actually shrank to $251 billion in 2024 due to currency depreciation, nearly 50 percent lower than pre-reform levels.

Real growth at 3.8 percent last year was the second highest since 2014 but still far below the trajectory required for Tinubu’s projection.

The International Monetary Fund and World Bank are equally conservative, forecasting growth between 3.4 and 3.6 percent in 2025, only inching up to 3.8 percent by 2027.

Afrinvest acknowledged reforms such as subsidy removal, FX liberalisation, and improved fiscal revenues. Yet it warned that inflation is eroding household incomes, power sector inefficiencies persist, and oil theft continues to cripple production.

For Nigeria to realistically meet Tinubu’s $1tn vision, Afrinvest estimates nominal GDP would need to exceed $800 billion by 2026, implying 40 percent yearly growth  or the naira must strengthen dramatically to N500 / $ from 2027 onward.

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The advisory firm urged government to step up reforms in oil, power, taxation, FX stability, and food security. Only then, it stressed, can the Nigeria economy projection of $1 trillion move from aspiration to reality.