The World Bank reaffirms its forecast that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.6% in 2025, buoyed by domestic reforms and service sector expansion, despite global trade uncertainties

Nigeria economy growth 2025 has been reaffirmed by the World Bank, which projects a 3.6 per cent expansion in the coming year, despite rising global trade tensions and a slowdown in the world economy.

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In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, the World Bank cut growth forecasts for nearly 70 per cent of the world’s economies, including the US, China, and key emerging markets.

The global growth projection for 2025 has been revised down by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3 per cent. However, Nigeria bucks this trend, with its economic outlook remaining stable.

“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 3.6 per cent in 2025 and to an average of 3.8 per cent in 2026–27,” the report stated.

The World Bank attributed this resilience to macroeconomic reforms that are beginning to stabilise the business environment and spur investments, particularly in the services sector.

Financial services and ICT continue to be the main engines of growth in Nigeria, while the industrial sector remains hampered by subdued crude oil output.

The report notes that monetary tightening in 2024 has helped curb currency depreciation and inflation, laying a firmer foundation for the projected growth.

While acknowledging global risks, the Bank stated that Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are somewhat shielded from direct trade disruptions due to limited manufacturing exports to the US and China.

Nevertheless, it warned that escalating trade tensions or a sharp slowdown in global demand could have knock-on effects due to SSA’s reliance on commodity exports.

On the broader regional outlook, the report raised concerns about weak per capita income growth, stating:

“In terms of living standards, the region would fall even further behind other emerging markets… These per capita income gains will remain inadequate for significantly reducing extreme poverty.”

Per capita income in Nigeria and SSA is projected to grow by only 1.6 per cent annually between 2025 and 2027.

The report warned that by 2027, over a quarter of SSA countries will not have recovered to pre-pandemic income levels, highlighting persistent challenges in reducing poverty and creating sufficient jobs for the region’s rapidly expanding working-age population.

Despite these concerns, the World Bank noted that Nigeria’s internal reforms are paying dividends, with positive implications for investor confidence and service sector performance.

If global trade tensions ease, the region could benefit from improved commodity demand and reduced uncertainty.

In the same week, US Ambassador to Nigeria Richard Mills Jr. confirmed a policy pivot towards private-sector investment over traditional aid, raising further questions about funding for critical services previously supported by US assistance.

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The World Bank’s forecast for Nigeria economy growth 2025 stands as a cautious yet optimistic outlook amid a turbulent global economic landscape, underscoring the importance of sustained reforms and strategic economic diversification.