Prof. Adeola Adenikinju warns that Nigeria could be left behind in the global energy transition if it fails to monetise oil and gas reserves strategically

Nigeria energy transition efforts must intensify or risk leaving the nation behind in the fast-evolving global shift towards cleaner energy, warns Prof. Adeola Adenikinju, former President of the Nigerian Economic Society.

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Delivering the keynote address at the 18th NAEE/International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) Annual International Conference in Abuja, Adenikinju cautioned that Nigeria’s oil and gas assets could become stranded if the country fails to monetise them before global demand peaks.

“The options for Nigeria are very clear,” he said. “We must aggressively exploit our oil and gas reserves while scaling up investments in solar, hydro, and wind power. As the world transitions away from carbon, hydrocarbons may soon lose value if we fail to act decisively.”

The conference, themed “Emerging Geopolitics of Energy: Navigating Global Shifts and Impact on Emerging Countries,” gathered policymakers, academics, and industry leaders to explore how global politics and technology are reshaping the energy landscape.

Adenikinju lamented Nigeria’s paradox of being a leading crude exporter yet home to over 87 million citizens without electricity access. “We are the largest oil exporter in Africa but import most of our refined petroleum. That is an unacceptable paradox,” he stated.

He highlighted how wars, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical realignments have redefined global energy dynamics, citing the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the “weaponisation of energy” as examples of new vulnerabilities.

“Before 2022, the EU relied on Russia for about 40 per cent of its natural gas. That dependence has fallen drastically, leading to soaring prices for liquefied natural gas and crude oil,” Adenikinju said.

He noted that policies such as the EU Green Deal and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act are reshaping global supply chains for critical minerals, intensifying competition between the United States and China for technological dominance.

“China now controls over 80 per cent of global solar panel manufacturing and mineral processing. Developing countries are being forced to make strategic choices about who to align with,” he added.

The economist also pointed out that economic uncertainty and high interest rates threaten energy investments in Africa. “When uncertainty rises, developers delay investment or demand higher returns. This discourages capital inflows into developing economies like Nigeria,” he warned.

Adenikinju urged African nations to move beyond exporting raw materials such as lithium and cobalt, advocating for full value-chain development and local manufacturing.

“Africa should not limit itself to being a supplier of raw materials. We must participate in technology development and green value chains,” he said.

Commending Nigeria’s reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act, he called for accelerated infrastructure and financing improvements to boost investor confidence.

“Energy security is back on the national agenda. Nigeria must balance profitability with sustainability while positioning itself as a credible player in the new global energy order,” he stated.

Also speaking, Prof. Edmund Lewis, President of IAEE, praised Nigeria’s leadership in energy scholarship, urging developing nations to adopt a pragmatic approach to transition.

Representing IAEE, Prof. Wunmi Iledare stressed that Africa’s energy future must not imitate Europe’s. “It must be a model of pragmatic prosperity driven by inclusiveness, data, and policy dialogue,” he said.

Similarly, Omar Faruk, Secretary General of the African Petroleum Producers Association (APPO), said even the International Energy Agency now admits that fossil fuels cannot be easily phased out, reinforcing Africa’s argument for a balanced transition.

“Africa’s unique realities require a balanced approach that does not undermine fossil fuels’ role in development,” Faruk noted. “If Africa fails to produce what it needs — renewable or conventional — it will remain trapped in dependency.”

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He concluded by emphasising that for Nigeria, mastering existing technologies and securing reliable energy access must precede any ambitious transition agenda.