A political dispute emerges in Ogun East over competing accounts of the 2023 Senate election and rising tensions ahead of 2027

By Victor Ojelabi

In Ogun politics, memory is often short and ambition is rarely patient. That is why the recent video of Dapo Abiodun, making an emotional case for his Senate ambition, has stirred more than just sympathy. It has reopened old arguments, revived buried tensions, and forced a closer look at the truth behind the 2023 Ogun East senatorial contest.

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The governor, nearing the end of his tenure, appears eager to transition smoothly into the National Assembly. In the now-circulating clip, he presents himself as a key architect of the emergence of Gbenga Daniel as senator in 2023. It is a claim that, on the surface, suggests loyalty rewarded and political generosity extended.

But politics in Ogun East is rarely that simple.

For many observers, the tone of the governor’s appeal raises eyebrows. This is a man long perceived as firm, even forceful in the exercise of power.

Seeing him adopt a softer, almost pleading posture has struck some as a sharp contrast to the image he cultivated while in office.

It is this contrast that has fuelled questions about whether the narrative being pushed is one of convenience rather than fact.

At the centre of the debate is a straightforward question: did Dapo Abiodun truly play a decisive role in Gbenga Daniel’s path to the Senate?

The historical record suggests otherwise.

The journey that brought Gbenga Daniel back into frontline politics was neither accidental nor dependent on gubernatorial backing.

After serving two terms as governor between 2003 and 2011, Daniel had stepped back from partisan contests.

His return was gradual, strategic, and anchored on structures he had built over years. By the time he formally joined the All Progressives Congress in 2021, he was not a political novice seeking endorsement but a seasoned actor reactivating an existing network.

Across Ogun East, his influence remained intact. From Remo to Ijebu divisions, his grassroots connections and loyalty base placed him ahead of most aspirants even before the primaries began.

What followed in 2022 was less a coronation and more a contest of influence.

Within the APC, factions had already taken shape. On one side were loyalists of the sitting governor. On the other were remnants of the camp aligned with Ibikunle Amosun.

Daniel, though newly integrated into the party, operated largely outside these traditional blocs, relying instead on his independent political machinery.

Accounts from that period showed that Governor Abiodun was not in support of Daniel’s Senate ambition.

Party structures under his influence were reportedly directed to withhold backing. There were also administrative pressure on individuals seen to be aligning with Daniel’s campaign.

Yet, despite these headwinds, Daniel’s campaign gathered momentum.

The primary election, held in Ijebu Ode, was already tilting in his favour as delegates cast their votes. Early indications showed a clear lead. It was at this critical juncture that a different kind of power entered the equation.

Oba Sikiru Adetona, one of the most influential traditional rulers in the region, stepped in.

His intervention reshaped the outcome in a way that political manoeuvring alone could not have achieved. Through his mediation, the then incumbent senator, Olalekan Mustapha, agreed to step down.

With that decision, the field effectively cleared.

The numbers that followed reflected what had already become evident. Daniel secured an overwhelming majority of delegate votes, leaving little doubt about his dominance in the race.

What could have been a prolonged intra-party struggle was resolved swiftly, not through executive backing, but through a combination of grassroots strength and traditional influence.

By the time the general election arrived in 2023, the momentum was firmly on his side. Victory at the polls only confirmed what the primaries had already demonstrated.

This sequence of events complicates the narrative now being advanced.

If anything, it highlights the limits of gubernatorial control in a political environment where history, loyalty, and cultural institutions still carry weight.

It also underscores the enduring relevance of traditional authorities in the South West, particularly in places like Ijebuland, where their word can recalibrate political equations overnight.

None of this diminishes the reality that alliances in politics are fluid.

Otunba Daniel himself had, at an earlier point, supported Abiodun’s governorship bid, contributing to a narrow electoral victory.

But support in one cycle does not automatically translate into control in another.

Today, as the contest for Ogun East ahead of 2027 begins to take shape, the lines are once again being drawn.

The relationship between the two men has clearly evolved from cooperation to competition.

What the current moment reveals is not just a clash of ambitions, but a contest over narrative. One side seeks to frame history as an extension of its influence.

The other stands on a record built through independent mobilisation and timely alliances.

For voters in Ogun East, the question may ultimately come down to credibility.

Beyond campaign rhetoric and emotional appeals lies a more enduring consideration: who truly understands the dynamics of representation, and whose track record aligns with the expectations of the people?

Is it someone who left Oke Mosan and came back after 12years with overwhelming supports to win the senate seat or someone who is yet to exit Oke Mosan, yet has more than half of Ogun people wishing he was never a governor?

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In the end, politics may allow for reinvention, but it rarely permits a complete rewriting of events.

So Dapo, stop lying.