The 2026 Ballon d’Or race intensifies as Lionel Messi leads contenders ahead of the World Cup final, with Yamal, Kane and Dembélé among favourites

Lionel Messi has emerged as the leading contender in the 2026 Ballon d’Or race ahead of the FIFA World Cup final, following his influential performance in Argentina’s semi-final victory over England.

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The Argentina captain played a key role in the 2-1 win over the Three Lions, providing two assists as the defending champions secured their place in the final against Spain.

According to prediction market platform Polymarket, Messi currently has a 31.7 per cent chance of winning the award later this year, putting the 39-year-old ahead of other leading candidates.

Barcelona winger Lamine Yamal ranks second among the favourites with a 30.9 per cent probability.

The Spain international has continued to attract global attention with his performances and has become one of the standout young talents in world football.

England captain Harry Kane is third in the rankings with a 13.5 per cent chance, while France forward Ousmane Dembélé completes the top four contenders with a 3.1 per cent probability.

The 2026 Ballon d’Or race is expected to be heavily influenced by performances at the World Cup, with the tournament providing some of the biggest stages for the leading candidates to strengthen their claims.

Messi, who won the Ballon d’Or a record eight times, is seeking another individual honour after continuing to play a decisive role for Argentina on the international stage.

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The winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or will be announced during a gala ceremony scheduled for October 26, when the football world will discover who succeeds the previous recipient of the prestigious award.