Crude oil price rises above $107 as Middle East supply fears deepen, raising fresh concerns over petrol prices in Nigeria

Brent crude oil, Nigerian petrol marketers and motorists across the country are facing renewed price pressure on Friday, September 11, 2026, after international crude prices surged above $107 a barrel amid worsening disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Also read:How to Buy Fuel Through the App, Self-Serve at NNPC Stations

Brent settled at $107.63 a barrel on Thursday, up more than 6 per cent, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to $102.48. Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since May as attacks and military tensions around the Middle East raised fears of a prolonged supply disruption.

The latest surge is adding pressure to Nigeria’s already elevated petrol petrol gantry price stood at N1,265 per litre, while the estimated import-parity price was around N1,310.64 per litre.

That means imported petrol was already more expensive than locally refined product before the latest crude rally market. Pump prices in parts of the country have moved above N1,300 per litre, with prices varying significantly between locations and retailers.

Recent industry data showed that Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s petrol gantry price stood at N1,265 per litre, while the estimated import-parity price was around N1,310.64 per litre. That means imported petrol was already more expensive than locally refined product before the latest crude rally.

Retail prices have nevertheless remained above N1,300 in several markets. Vanguard reported that some filling stations in Lagos and Abuja were selling petrol at about N1,325 per litre even when several Lagos depot prices were between N1,266 and N1,280.

The immediate concern for motorists is whether the latest international oil shock will trigger another round of increases at the pump.

There is a strong possibility of further pressure, particularly if crude prices remain above $100 for an extended period. Refiners and importers must ultimately account for the cost of crude, transportation, foreign exchange and other supply expenses when setting prices.

Dangote Refinery has already adjusted its petrol price several times in recent weeks. The refinery raised its petrol gantry price from N1,165 to N1,185 per litre on August 21, then to N1,200 on August 26 and eventually to N1,265 on August 29. The cumulative increase over eight days was N100 per litre.

The latest crude rally is being driven primarily by fears surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.

Reuters reported that attacks linked to the conflict involving Iran had disrupted tanker traffic, while the United States and Iran remained locked in a confrontation with no clear indication of an immediate resolution.

The disruption is significant because the Strait of Hormuz handles a substantial share of global oil flows. Reduced tanker movements have forced traders to reassess how much crude will be available to international markets if the confrontation continues.

The effect has already extended beyond crude itself. Reuters reported that Asian buyers are scrambling for alternative supplies, with Chinese independent refiners purchasing crude from West Africa, Canada and South America as Middle Eastern supplies become less reliable.

For Nigeria, the situation presents a complicated picture.

As an oil-producing country, higher crude prices can improve government and export revenues. But Nigeria remains heavily dependent on petroleum products for transportation and economic activity, meaning higher international energy costs can quickly feed into inflation and household expenses.

The country’s expanding domestic refining capacity could, however, provide some protection against the full impact of international fuel prices.

Dangote Refinery has become an increasingly important source of petrol for the Nigerian market.

Reuters reported on Thursday that the refinery had secured at least 16 million barrels of Nigerian crude for October delivery, equivalent to roughly 520,000 barrels per day and a substantial share of its 700,000-barrel-per-day capacity.

That domestic supply is particularly important because imported petrol currently costs more than Dangote’s locally refined product.

The price advantage could help limit the extent to which international crude increases are passed directly to Nigerian motorists.

It does not, however, eliminate the exposure to global oil prices.

A sustained crude rally can raise the cost of crude supplied to Nigerian refineries and increase the value of alternative supplies available to marketers.

Distribution costs, exchange-rate movements and refinery pricing decisions will also influence what motorists ultimately pay.

The current market therefore presents a delicate balance. Local refining is giving Nigeria some insulation from expensive imports, but the country’s petrol market remains connected to global energy prices.

The stakes are particularly high for households and businesses already dealing with elevated transport and operating costs.

Another significant petrol increase could place additional pressure on food distribution, public transport and the wider cost of living.

For now, no new nationwide pump-price increase has been formally established solely because Brent crude crossed $107.

But the sharp movement in international oil prices has created a fresh risk for the Nigerian downstream market.

If the Middle East conflict continues to restrict oil shipments and Brent remains above $100, Nigerian motorists could face further price adjustments.

Also read:How to Buy Fuel Through the App, Self-Serve at NNPC Stations

The crucial question will be whether domestic refining, particularly the growing output from Dangote Refinery, can cushion Nigerian consumers from the full force of the crude oil price shock.