Nigeria crude exports reached an estimated 148.9 million barrels valued at N20.22tn in the first five months of 2026, despite concerns over domestic refinery feedstock supply

Nigeria exported an estimated 148.9 million barrels of crude oil valued at about N20.22tn in the first five months of 2026, showcasing the scale of the country’s oil trade despite persistent concerns over production levels.

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The crude barrels were exported by both international and indigenous oil companies, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

While the export of crude oil may lead to a lack of sufficient domestic feedstock for Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other local refineries, it boosts the country’s foreign exchange earnings.

An analysis of crude oil production and export data for January to May 2026 showed that the country’s crude exports were worth approximately $14.66bn, equivalent to N20.22tn at an exchange rate of N1,380 to the dollar.

In comparison, Nigeria exported 154 million barrels of crude worth about $11.32bn during the same period of 2025. Although export volume in 2026 fell by 5.1 million barrels, representing a 3.3 per cent decline, the export value jumped by about $3.33bn, or 29.5 per cent, driven by significantly higher crude oil prices this year.

The figures obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria indicate that the total volume of crude oil produced by the country during the five-month review period in 2026 was 216.85 million barrels, with a gross market value of approximately $21.28bn, or about N29.36tn, using the same exchange rate.

A breakdown of the CBN figures showed that Nigeria produced about 45.26 million barrels in January, 36.68 million barrels in February, 42.78 million barrels in March, 44.70 million barrels in April, and 47.43 million barrels in May.

Crude exports followed a similar trend, with 31.31 million barrels exported in January, 24.08 million barrels in February, 28.83 million barrels in March, 31.20 million barrels in April, and 33.48 million barrels in May.

Overall, Nigeria exported about 68.7 per cent of the crude oil it produced during the five months, leaving roughly 67.95 million barrels available for domestic refining, storage, operational use, and inventory adjustments.

The effect of the US-Iran war was also felt in the monthly average prices of crude from March to May. In January and February, before the war started, average crude prices were $68.05 and $72.33 a barrel.

But the prices jumped to $106.09 in March, $126.71 in April, and $112.63 in May, reflecting the sharp rise in crude prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

This Nigeria crude exports surge in value despite lower volumes highlights the impact of higher international oil prices on the country’s earnings.

Domestic crude supply to Nigeria’s refineries declined to 15.84 million barrels in May 2026, even as the facilities achieved a combined intake of 17.92 million barrels for the month, according to the latest midstream and downstream statistics released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

The Dangote refinery has recently accused the Federal Government and its agencies of alleged deliberate sabotage, undermining its operations and frustrating its investment in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, an allegation the Federal Government denied.

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This Nigeria crude exports performance underscores the tension between maximising foreign exchange earnings and ensuring adequate feedstock for local refining capacity.