Nigeria crude oil earnings rose to N55.5tn in 2025 as higher prices offset production shortfalls, official NUPRC and CBN data show

Nigeria earned an estimated N55.5 trillion from crude oil sales in 2025, according to an analysis of official production figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and crude price data published by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

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The figure represents an increase from the N50.88 trillion recorded in 2024, reflecting stronger average crude prices despite persistent challenges that kept production below Nigeria’s OPEC quota for most of the year.

Data from the NUPRC show that Nigeria produced a total of 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025. Output fluctuated throughout the year amid outages, operational disruptions and a gradual recovery in some producing fields.

Using an average Bonny Light crude price of $72.08 per barrel in 2025 and an exchange rate of N1,450 to the dollar, estimated gross crude revenue stood at about $38.23 billion, translating to roughly N55.5 trillion.

Production opened strongly at 47.70 million barrels in January before declining sharply in February. Output recovered modestly through the second quarter and remained relatively stable until mid-year, before weakening again in the third quarter and rebounding slightly towards year-end.

While production remained constrained, crude prices provided critical support. CBN data show that Bonny Light traded above $80 per barrel in January before easing in the second quarter, stabilising in mid-year and weakening again towards October.

Industry analysts cautioned that the Nigeria crude oil earnings figure represents gross revenue rather than actual government receipts, as it does not account for production costs, joint venture obligations, cost recovery under production-sharing contracts, oil theft or domestic crude supply commitments.

Nonetheless, the data underline the scale of inflows generated by crude oil sales and the continued dependence of Africa’s largest economy on oil price performance as much as output stability.

In 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell below its OPEC allocation in nine months of the year, meeting or slightly exceeding the quota only in January, June and July. Average daily output dipped again in December, closing the year at about 1.42 million barrels per day.

The shortfall also meant Nigeria missed its ambitious 2025 budget target of 2.1 million barrels per day for crude oil and condensates. Actual combined production stood at about 599.64 million barrels for the year, leaving a gap of nearly 167 million barrels.

Economists said the outcome highlights deep-rooted structural issues in the oil sector, including insecurity, pipeline vandalism, high production costs and policy uncertainty, even as recent investment commitments offer cautious optimism.

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Despite these headwinds, analysts described the 2025 revenue outcome as resilient, underscoring the powerful role of global oil prices in cushioning Nigeria’s earnings at a time of constrained output.