Nigeria inflation 2025 may fall to 17% by December, IMPI forecasts, citing disinflation trends and urging CBN to ease monetary policy rates

The latest National Bureau of Statistics data shows inflation eased to 20.12 per cent in August from 21.88 per cent in July.

Also read: Inflation in Nigeria Drops to 20.12%, Single Digit Expected Soon

In a policy statement issued in Minna on Wednesday, IMPI urged the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee to consider cutting the current 27.50 per cent benchmark rate at its upcoming meeting.

IMPI chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, said some critics have dismissed the dip as inconsequential for households, arguing that prices remain high.

However, he insisted the trend marks a turning point: “Empirically speaking, the Nigerian economy is now in a disinflationary dispensation.

For the first time in nearly a decade, the country is witnessing a meaningful and sustained slowdown in consumer prices.”

Nigeria’s inflation fell from 24.5 per cent in January to 20.12 per cent in August—a 17.5 per cent mid-year reduction, the sharpest in more than ten years.

IMPI attributed this to three factors: sustained high interest rates curbing speculative forex demand, increased foreign exchange inflows stabilising the naira, and improved harvests reducing food price pressures.

At 20.12 per cent, inflation is already below the CBN’s 21 per cent target. IMPI believes it could reach 17 per cent by December, close to the federal administration’s 15 per cent target.

To support this trend, the think tank recommended easing the policy rate by at least 200 basis points before year-end and reducing the cash reserve ratio from 50 per cent to 35 per cent.

IMPI argued that such measures would cut borrowing costs, boost production, and create jobs by allowing banks more liquidity for lending.

The group also highlighted a rebound in corporate performance. Seven large companies that posted a combined ₦418bn loss in Q1 2024 recorded ₦289.8bn pre-tax profit in Q1 2025, with consumer goods firms returning to a combined ₦264bn profit by Q2.

Also read: Nigeria Inflation July 2025 Shows Positive Decline in Food Prices

“This sharp earnings reversal highlights how currency stability and internal cost controls can quickly shift the fortunes of companies previously dragged down by macroeconomic headwinds,” IMPI said, adding that both domestic and global commentators now see stability in Nigeria’s economy.