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Aftermath of Fubara’s declaration: why a guber bid remains unlikely

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Rivers

An analysis suggests Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s possible 2027 governorship ambition faces political, legal and structural challenges in Rivers State

Kayode Adebiyi 

The political atmosphere in Rivers State has once again been stirred following the recent press release by Governor Siminalayi Fubara, in which he reportedly clarified that he is not participating in the APC governorship primary ahead of the 2027 election.

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Expectedly, the development has triggered a wave of reactions among political observers and supporters. Some, driven more by emotion than political realism, have already begun speculating that Governor Fubara may eventually defect to another political platform, including fringe or emerging parties, to pursue a governorship ambition in 2027.

But such assumptions appear more emotional than strategic.

Anyone who has carefully observed Governor Fubara’s antecedents, disposition, and political conduct would understand why such a move remains highly improbable.

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This is not to diminish his intellectual capacity or professional accomplishments. By every indication, Governor Fubara appears to be a brilliant, chartered accountant whose rise through the civil service reflects competence, discipline, and administrative excellence. His educational background and career trajectory speak for themselves.

However, excellence in bureaucracy does not automatically translate into political dexterity.

Fubara’s natural makeup appears more aligned with the world he occupied before politics thrust him into executive leadership: a highly educated, career driven technocrat who rose through an organised bureaucratic structure to become the Rivers State Accountant-General through diligence and competence and would ordinarily retire quietly and honourably after distinguished service.

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There is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

But it also says something important about political temperament.

Politics, particularly Rivers politics, is not the civil service. It is not governed merely by procedure, technical expertise, or professional competence.

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It is a jungle of competing interests, shifting alliances, betrayals, power calculations, and survival instincts.

It demands tactical patience, emotional restraint, strategic thinking, and, above all, an understanding that power is rarely exercised emotionally.

This is precisely why the suggestion that Governor Fubara would independently leave for another political party and mount a fierce governorship battle in 2027 appears farfetched.

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But even beyond questions of political temperament, there is now a significant legal and procedural hurdle: the Electoral Act 2026.

The new electoral framework has substantially narrowed the pathway for opportunistic political defections and last-minute political realignments.

Political parties are now required to submit membership registers to INEC well ahead of their primaries, and only individuals whose names appear in those registers can validly participate as aspirants.

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In practical terms, the old political culture where a politician simply loses out in one platform and suddenly migrates to another to secure an election ticket has become considerably more difficult.

This means that even if Governor Fubara were hypothetically inclined to pursue a governorship ambition through another platform, the legal pathway is no longer as flexible as it once was. Timing, party membership, compliance with INEC regulations, and pre-established political structures now matter far more than before.

Yet even this legal reality is only part of the story.

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The deeper issue remains political disposition.

The stakes in Rivers politics are extraordinarily high. It is not a terrain for reluctant combatants or political idealists. It rewards organisation, resilience, tactical aggression, and the ability to survive prolonged political warfare.

And if there is one thing recent history has shown, it is that Governor Fubara does not appear naturally wired for that kind of politics.

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It is difficult to forget that barely six months into office, he openly found himself in conflict with the very political establishment that produced him, including the Rivers State House of Assembly and the power bloc that facilitated his emergence.

For those who understand the laws of power, this development was always curious.

Political history teaches that a governor handpicked by an entrenched political structure must tread carefully, dine with a long spoon, consolidate quietly, and, most importantly, secure political survival by securing his second term ticket before attempting to assert full independence. Timing, in politics, is often just as important as ambition.

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Yet Governor Fubara appeared to move against entrenched interests almost immediately he got into office.

To some, this reflected courage and principle.

To others, it exposed an incomplete understanding of how power is acquired, managed, preserved, and strategically deployed within deeply structured political systems.

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That distinction matters.

Because the same political instincts required to survive a confrontation with an established power bloc are the same instincts needed to independently build a political structure strong enough to contest and win a governorship election in Rivers State without the backing of a formidable political machine.

That is no easy task.

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Rivers politics is not for the faint hearted. It is not won by sentiment. It is sustained through strategic alliances, political endurance, and calculated patience.

From all indications, Governor Fubara appears more suited to structured governance than the brutal, unpredictable realities of survival politics.

Again, this should not be mistaken for an attack on his intelligence or competence. Not every effective administrator is necessarily built for the rough edges of power politics.

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Some people excel within organised institutions. Others thrive in political combat.

They are not always the same thing.

Which is why the idea that Governor Fubara would suddenly emerge as an independent political war general under another smaller platform in 2027 appears, at least for now, highly unlikely.

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In Rivers politics, ambition alone is never enough.

Disposition matters. Timing matters. Structure matters.

Also read: Kanu Nwankwo Celebrates Arsenal Premier League Triumph

And above all, political instinct matters.

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Opinion

Tributes to Dr. Segun Osoba and Abosede Oluwayemisi

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Dr. Segun Osoba

By Bola BOLAWOLE, 

Dr. Segun Osoba, Marxist scholar and historian, was one of my mentors and role models. Our paths crossed long before I came face-to-face with the enigma at the then University of Ife, now Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, where he not only taught me courses in the History department, but was also our staff adviser and comrade.

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Cerebral and unflinchingly principled, Osoba snubbed the usual hussle, if I may call it that, of many academics to attain to the professoral status, preferring to remain “Dr.” even though everyone knew he was not the mate of many a professor!

For me, Osoba’s fame travelled far ahead of him. Appointed by the Murtala Muhammed regime into the Constitution Drafting Committee in October 1975, Osoba, together with his ideological soulmate, Dr. Bala Usman of the History department of the Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria, broke ranks with the other members of the CDC to author a people-oriented draft Constitution that made the Nigerian people’s interests, aspirations and well-being its focal point. It was termed the Minority Report.

Expectedly, the conservative Olusegun Obasanjo regime that succeeded Murtala Muhammed rejected the Osoba/Bala Usman report while accepting the report of the majority members of the CDC on September 14, 1976. The CDC was chaired by Chief FRA Williams.

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The majority/minority report divide apart, the CDC was not without its controversies: The sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, had declined to serve on the committee, thereby reducing its members from 50 to 49. There was also the debate as to what would have been the choice of a much more radical Murtala Muhammed had he not been assassinated on February 13, 1976.

Specifically because of Osoba and Bala Usman, I chose to study History in the university! And I was fortunate to drink from the fountain of knowledge at the feet of Dr. Osoba on and off the classroom. As comrades, our relationship did not end at Ife; usually, comradeship is a life-long endeavour.

In late December 2023, after a spell of ‘long-time-no-see’, four of us old students/comrades of Comrade Osoba decided to visit him at his Ijebu-Ode residence – Femi Falana, SAN; Ambassador Ayo Olukanni; Kayode Komolafe (K.K.) and my humble self.

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Comrade was still his very sharp and humorous self. Despite his health challenges, he still “recognised” each and everyone of us by our voice. We discussed for hours and it was amazing that ill-health spared his intellect. He was his familiar self – analytical, even if caustic, going down memory lane and recalling facts and figures as if he was reading them from a book spread out before him.

We promised to return. Unfortunately, we procrastinated, despite Olukanni’s repeated prodding. But as individuals, we attended his 90th birthday celebration held at Ijebu-Ode on 9th January, 2025. His book, “Critical and Contentious Issues in the Modern and Contemporary History of Nigeria: Collected Writings of Samuel Olusegun Osoba”, which was unveiled at the occasion, adorns my Library. See also my “Tributes to Comrade (Dr.) Segun Osoba at 90”, published in this column in the Wednesday, 15 January, 2025 edition of the New Telegraph newspaper.

Dr. Osoba passed away peacefully at home in Ijebu-Ode on 14 May, 2026. A flurry of activities by comrades from all the nooks and crannies of this country as well as abroad celebrated his life, extolled his virtues, pledged to continue the struggle from where he stopped, and bid him farewell from this earthly plane. In this were the words of Che Guevara fulfilled: “Wherever death may surprise us, let it be welcome, provided that this, our battle cry, may have reached some receptive ear and another hand may be extended to wield our weapons (Message to the Tricontinental, 1967).”

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I was unable to participate fully in some of the activities because of the tragedy that fell at my doorsteps at about the same time.

First, my elder sister’s husband, Gabriel Alani Olusola Omiyale, died on June 11, 2026 at the age of 89 years. He was a mentor. Then came the bombshell: His daughter – and my sister’s second child, Abosede Oluwayemisi – died the same month on June 29th at the age of 54!

That was massive! To say we were devastated is an understatement. If the pains that attended Bose’s death remain indescribable, the ways and manners of her husband and his family immediately before and after her death remain a puzzle. They rubbed insults on our injury.

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They desecrated our Yoruba customs and traditions. Bose had heroically battled the scourge of breast cancer; after undergoing an operation, we were all optimistic she was on the path to full recovery until tests showed she needed more medical attention.

Naturally, she was devastated but, gradually, she built up the confidence and strength required to see her through. No stone was left unturned by her extended family who did not leave the load for the husband and his family to carry. All hands were on deck.

The extended family had always been there for Bose. Her siblings had been wonderful; never allowing her husband’s unstable job situation to show or affect Bose’s treatment and other needs, including her children’s education and welfare. I also played my part. I am grateful to everyone who responded to our clarion call in many ways.

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We were hopeful we would all pull through it and that Bose’s case would be another testimony that cancer can be beaten. All she needed – as much as medicare – were words of encouragement and support. That, however, became the weakest link!

Act one: Against the best advice of her mother, my niece was made to consume a concoction that turned the tide. According to her husband, the concoction was procured by his own brother in Akure, Ondo state, taken to a church for prayers after which it was dispatched through a motorpark! Bose drank this concoction and started vomiting. In his own testimonies, Bose’s husband took her to a hospital where she was given drips, which gave her some strength, but because the doctor was late in coming, he took her back home despite the fact that the test they ran indicated that she had a blood infection! That night at home, she started vomiting again and, according to the husband’s testimony, he took her again to the hospital by 1.30am. She was left unattended until late afternoon when she fell into a coma! Bose’s blood infection was never treated until she passed away!

Act Two: Our standard practice had been to always double-check whatever a doctor said or prescribed, but on this fatal day, Bose’s husband kept all of us in the dark. We were not told of the blood infection. We were not alerted when she started vomiting again in the night. We were not informed when he took her again to the hospital. According to him, Bose walked with her own legs into the hospital, climbing the row of stairs all by herself.

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Act Three: At the hospital, the husband took Bose’s phone and locked it in the car parked downstairs. So she had no access to her phone – to call out or receive in-coming calls. She was held incommunicado. And there was no one else there with the husband and wife. He called noone; he also snubbed repeated incoming calls into his own phone, including from my elder sister, who is Bose’s mother.

Act four: Later that afternoon, the husband called me to say Bose was not responding to treatment and that I should start interceding for her. I was aghast! I had been waiting all day for them to link up with me for a scheduled appointment. Later, a female voice using the husband’s phone called me to quickly come to the hospital. I was on my way there when Bose’s second child, a girl writing exams at the Obafemi Awolowo University, called me, sobbing! “Daddy, what is happening to my Mom? My Daddy called me and said my Mummy is in coma” Coma! “Yes, sir”, the girl replied, “and my Daddy said my Mummy is dead!” I almost lost control of the wheel because I was driving.

Act Five: On getting to the hospital, they had already started embalming Bose! I screamed at the husband, but the hospital staff restrained me. Why the haste? Without any of her family members present! A thousand thoughts ran riot in my head. At 6.28 pm, Bose’s mortal remains were deposited in the morgue and we left.

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Act Six: While we were agonizing about how to break the sad news to Bose’s mother, her husband and his family had posted Bose’s death on every conceivable social media platform, breaking the news to her young children, the oldest of whom is just a little over 20 years while the youngest is 14!

Act seven: We the siblings of Bose’s mother wanted a decent burial for her. We wanted her dreams and visions for her children respected. Bose’s husband and his family spurned all of that! They weaponized Bose’s young children against us. They threw their so-called customs and traditions in our face at every turn – as if the Yoruba have no customs and traditions. They employed deceit and subterfuge and hurriedly committed Bose to mother earth without any of her family members present! We warned! They ignored and played games!

Google says Edema is a name answered by both the Urhobo and Itsekiri people of Delta state. Does their culture permit the trumping of Yoruba customs and traditions? Should a husband boast to his children – while their mother was still battling cancer – that, if she dies, he will remarry? So, expect his wedding invitation!

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Had Bose died of cancer, our pains would have been less insufferable; but she did not! Were they tired of the stress and wanted closure so they could move on with their own life? Hastened to her death! Hurried to the grave! This is to put the records straight. Our immediate attention, however, is the good health of Bose’s mother – and Daddy Omiyale’s burial slated for 29th and 30th of October this year.

Let Dr. Segun Osoba rest in power! And eternal rest grant Abosede Oluwayemisi Edema (nee Omiyale), O Lord!

 

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(Published in the TREASURES column on the back page of the Wednesday, 5 August, 2026 edition of the New Telegraph newspaper).

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