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Opinion

Tinubu’s Biggest Opponent Is Not Obi or Atiku… It’s Tinubu

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Tinubu

By Moses Braimah

“A government that spends more time explaining the opposition than explaining its achievements may already know where its real problem lies.”

Nigeria is a fascinating country. 

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Explain it to someone and watch them nod eagerly, only for them to confess moments later: “I still don’t understand.” If you claim to fully grasp Nigeria, you are either a genius or nobody explained it properly.

Take our politics. 

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu sits in Aso Rock with every lever of power firmly in hand: constitutional authority, federal machinery, a ruling party that controls the National Assembly, the loyalty of most governors, ministerial appointments, security agencies, and the full weight of incumbency. He has time, plenty of it, before 2027.

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Also read: Kwankwaso Condemns Response to Obi, El-Rufai Cases

Yet somehow, Peter Obi still haunts the dreams of many in the corridors of power. How?

Even if we accept the official narrative without question; INEC declared Tinubu winner, the judiciary affirmed it, case closed – the reality remains: Obi came third, Atiku second. Simple arithmetic.

So why does every political conversation treat Peter Obi like the man in Aso Rock and Tinubu like the opposition candidate campaigning from the streets? Something is seriously off balance.

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President Tinubu, please note. The Real Opposition Lives in the Market.

Tinubu’s greatest political opponent is not Peter Obi.  It is not Atiku Abubakar.

It is not social media, the NDC Party, or the ADC.  It is the ordinary Nigerian , the woman haggling for tomatoes and rice in the market, the father staring at fuel prices and school fees every single morning.  That voter is the real opposition. You cannot arrest her. You cannot suspend him. You cannot drown that frustration in press releases.

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The electorate has a simple, unforgiving logic: when happy, they reward. When hurting, they look elsewhere. Politics is not more complicated than that.

Please don’t forget, talk is cheap. But Nigerians want evidence.

Nigerians have perfected two arts: listening carefully, and comparing what they hear with what they feel in their pockets and bellies. Government speaks of reforms. The people speak of hardship. Government talks of laying foundations. The people ask, “Foundations for how long?”  Government preaches patience. The people reply, “Na patience we don dey chop since 1999?”

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Nobody denies that fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate reforms were economically inevitable. Many experts agree. But economic theory does not fill plates or pay bills. Economists celebrate policy. Citizens celebrate results. No one cooks textbooks for dinner.

One interesting thing is that, the Tinubu Propaganda Department is working overtime.

Listen to some government defenders and you’ll be entertained. Instead of showcasing tangible improvements in living standards, they expend enormous energy attacking Obi, Atiku, or whoever is trending.

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One wonders: if the report card is that impressive, why spend the entire PTA meeting discussing another student’s failures? Show us your results. Instead, the propaganda machine runs non-stop. Every criticism is labelled “political.” Every complaint is “sponsored.” Every protest is “opposition.” Every dissenting economist is “anti-government.” Every uncomfortable headline is a “conspiracy.”

Even a generator deserves time to rest.

The big question, who exactly is Tinubu afraid of? The President commands: The power of incumbency, Federal resources, Over 30 aligned governors , The National Assembly, Strategic appointments, Security agencies, and Nationwide party structures.

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Add the vocal defenders: Bayo Onanuga, Daniel Bwala, Seyi Tinubu, Godswill Akpabio, Reno Omokri, Femi Fani-Kayode, Chief Priest, MC Oluomo, the Iyaloja network, political influencers, media allies, strategists, content creators, and even that your uncle quarrelling on WhatsApp every morning.

Yet everyone behaves as if one man with a microphone somewhere is about to topple the government. Why?

Now listen and listen very carefully. The Mirror is the Real Opposition

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Perhaps the government is staring in the wrong direction. Peter Obi and Atiku are not the threat. Their supporters can rally, grant interviews, trend hashtags, and make videos, that is democracy. But none of them will decide Tinubu’s fate in 2027.

The real deciders are the trader in Ariaria, the mechanic in Kaduna, the teacher in Osogbo, the banker in Lagos, the farmer in Benue, the civil servant in Enugu, the unemployed graduate in Kano.

When these people begin to say, “Yes, life is genuinely getting better,” the campaign is already won. Until then, every billboard is mere decoration.

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Do you know that even Lagos is trying to tell us something? Supporters love pointing to Tinubu’s Lagos legacy. Fair enough, the city has grown remarkably. But politics has a long and stubborn memory.

If Lagosians were completely satisfied after decades of dominance, elections there would not be growing more competitive. But they are not. That should be a loud signal.  The last presidential result in Lagos says it all.

Nigeria is thirty times more complex than Lagos. If your own political fortress is becoming contested despite years of control, perhaps the answer is not to shout louder. Perhaps it is to govern better.

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Always remember, good governance is the Best Campaign Director. Some assume that Tinubu’s perceived political experience guarantees victory. Politics does not work that way. Experience only wins when it delivers visible outcomes.

People are not demanding perfection. They are asking for evidence, reasons to believe that tomorrow will be better than today. That is not too much to ask.

My friendly piece of advice to reflect on. Ironically, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar may be doing this government a greater service than some of its loudest supporters. They keep reminding it that Nigerians are watching.

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Opposition is not the disease. It is often the thermometer. Smashing the thermometer has never cured a fever.

Mr. President still has time, more than enough.

If governance becomes more visible than propaganda… If performance begins speaking louder than spokespersons… If ordinary Nigerians start feeling genuine relief…

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Then 2027 may prove far easier than many now fear.

But if the administration continues treating every challenge as though it wears Obi or Atiku’s face, it may one day wake up to discover its real opponent had no political party.

It was simply public opinion. And public opinion, unlike politicians, cannot be negotiated with.

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As we say in Nigeria: “Na person wey wear shoe know where e dey pinch.”

Also read: President Tinubu Pays Glowing Tribute to Tunji Bello at 65

The people know exactly where Nigeria is pinching them. The sooner government listens to that pain instead of arguing with those describing it, the better its chances, not just at the next election, but in crafting a legacy that outlives elections.

A word, they say, is enough for the wise.

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Opinion

Nigeria’s Productive Chaos: How We Turn Enterprise into National Prosperity

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Nigeria

By Osoba Otaigbe,

 

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Why Nigeria’s next economic breakthrough must turn human energy into organisational productivity

The Conversations That Started My Thinking

Recently, I had the opportunity to facilitate two training programmes in Nigeria that caused me to think more deeply about productivity. The first was Maximising Personal Productivity and Positive Thinking, delivered with NNPC Academy. The second was Customer Relationship Management, delivered for the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria at its Kaduna Training Centre.

 

Also read: Branding bests pricing per perception, buying decisions

The programmes were different in subject and purpose, but the conversations with participants kept bringing me back to the same question: Why do highly capable and hardworking people sometimes struggle to achieve their full potential within our organisations? I encountered some intelligent professionals, experienced managers and people genuinely committed to doing their jobs well. Yet our discussions also revealed something familiar about organisational life in Nigeria.

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People often expend considerable energy navigating processes, overcoming institutional barriers and finding ways around systems before they can get the work done.

I left those engagements thinking beyond training. Nigeria does not lack capable people. We have ambitious leaders, intelligent professionals, innovative entrepreneurs and a remarkable capacity to improvise.

The deeper question is whether the organisations and systems within which our people work enable them to convert all that energy into its full productive value.

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Understanding Nigeria’s Productive Chaos

This led me to a phrase that I believe describes an important part of the Nigerian economic experience: productive chaos. By productive chaos, I mean an environment in which enormous human energy, ingenuity and economic activity produce results despite, rather than because of, many of the systems surrounding them.

Nigeria is certainly productive. Travel through Lagos, Kano, Aba, Port Harcourt, Abuja, Kaduna or Onitsha and you encounter economic energy everywhere. People are trading, manufacturing, building, transporting, financing, designing and solving problems.

When electricity fails, businesses find alternative power. When conventional finance is difficult to access, entrepreneurs find other sources of capital. When distribution systems are inadequate, traders create their own networks.

When formal processes become slow, people develop workarounds. Nigerians have become remarkably good at making things happen.

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There is much to admire in this resilience, but there is also a danger. We can become so accustomed to celebrating our ability to overcome difficult systems that we stop asking why the systems remain difficult in the first place.

The more important question is this: How much more could Nigeria achieve if our systems worked as hard as our people do?

Activity Is Not the Same as Productivity

Activity should not be confused with productivity. An organisation can have hundreds of hardworking employees and still be inefficient. A business can invest heavily in technology while maintaining poor processes. A government institution can employ highly qualified professionals while decisions continue to move slowly.

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A company can send hundreds of employees on training programmes without knowing whether the learning subsequently improves performance. Everyone can be extremely busy while the organisation remains less productive than it should be.

Development economist Joe Studwell offers a useful perspective on this question. His work on economic development reminds us that economic activity by itself does not necessarily produce prosperity. Sustainable development requires economies to increase their productive capacity.

Agriculture, industry, finance, skills and institutions must increasingly work together to create greater value.

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For Nigeria, this distinction is important. Our challenge is not simply to generate more economic activity.

We must become better at converting the enormous amount of activity already taking place into sustained productivity. That means moving from productive chaos to productive coordination.

From Productive Chaos to Productive Coordination

Consider an orchestra or afrobeat band containing fifteen outstanding musicians. Every musician may be exceptionally talented, but if each person plays a different composition at the same time without a common score, individual excellence produces noise. The problem is not talent. The problem is coordination. The musicians need a common score, clear direction, disciplined practice and the ability to listen to one another.

Organisations are not very different from that example. A company may have talented people, technology, financial resources and an ambitious strategy and still underperform because these elements are poorly connected. Strategy must connect with execution. Leadership must connect with accountability. Training must connect with performance.

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Technology must connect with processes. Customer promises must connect with customer experience. Investment must connect with measurable outcomes.

This is why Nigeria does not simply need only more talented people. We need organisations capable of multiplying the talent we already have. Productive coordination is what turns individual effort into institutional capability.

From Coordination to Transformation

Productive coordination creates the conditions for productive transformation. Transformation is a word we use frequently in Nigeria, but perhaps we need to become more demanding about what it means.

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Transformation is not simply introducing new technology, restructuring an organisation, engaging consultants or sending employees for training. The real test should be much simpler: What changed?

If an organisation introduces new technology, what improved? If 500 employees are trained, what changed six months later? If consultants redesign an organisation, what became more efficient? If a department is restructured, did decision making improve? If a customer service programme is introduced, did customers actually experience better service?

Transformation should ultimately be measurable. Decisions should become faster. Processes should become simpler.

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Managers should lead better. Employees should understand priorities. Customers should receive better service.

Resources should generate greater value. Innovation should move from conversation to implementation. Accountability should become part of organisational culture.

Diagnose Before You Prescribe

My recent training experiences reinforced another lesson. Training matters, but not every organisational problem is a training problem.

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Sometimes what appears to be an employee performance problem is actually a management problem. What appears to be a technology problem may be a process problem.

What looks like a customer service problem may originate much deeper within organisational culture.

What appears to be poor execution may result from employees not understanding the organisation’s strategy.

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When we diagnose the problem incorrectly, we can spend considerable resources treating symptoms while leaving the underlying problem untouched.

Before asking, What training do our people need?”, perhaps Nigerian organisations should first ask a more fundamental question: “What is preventing this organisation from performing at its full potential?”

That question changes the conversation. It moves us from programmes to problems, from assumptions to evidence and from interventions to measurable outcomes.

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It also encourages leadership to look at the organisation as an interconnected system rather than treating every challenge in isolation.

Productivity Is a National Question

There is a wider national reason why this matters. We usually discuss Nigeria’s economic future through the language of government policy.

We talk about GDP, inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, infrastructure, taxation, foreign investment and government expenditure.

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These issues are important, but national productivity does not happen somewhere abstractly called “the economy”. It happens every day inside organisations.

A farmer becomes more productive. A factory becomes more productive. A bank becomes more productive. A government department becomes more productive. A hospital becomes more productive. A university becomes more productive.

A logistics company becomes more productive. A small business becomes more productive. Multiply these improvements across thousands of organisations and eventually we are no longer talking simply about organisational productivity. We are talking about national productivity.

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Nigeria’s next productivity revolution may therefore be quieter than we imagine. It may not begin with one spectacular national project.

It could emerge through thousands of improvements taking place simultaneously across our institutions and businesses.

Imagine a government agency reducing a process that once took three weeks to three days. Imagine a bank removing unnecessary stages from a customer’s journey.

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Imagine a manufacturer discovering the real reason production is below capacity and addressing it. Imagine a family business developing governance structures that allow it to flourish beyond its founder.

Imagine an organisation returning six months after a major training programme to measure what actually changed.

Each improvement may appear small when viewed independently. Across thousands of organisations, however, these improvements begin to change the productive capacity of a nation.

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Introducing OARE360

It is from this conviction that I have been developing OARE360, Organisational Advancement, Readiness and Excellence 360. OARE360 begins with a simple principle: diagnose before you prescribe. Its purpose is to help organisations understand their organisational health and readiness, identify the factors constraining performance, determine the interventions genuinely required and measure whether improvement actually takes place.

The starting point should not always be the assumption that technology will solve the problem, that another restructuring exercise is required or that another training programme will automatically improve performance.

The starting point should be understanding the organisation itself. What is working? What is not working? Why? What needs to change? What should leadership prioritise? Most importantly, how will we know whether the intervention has worked?

OARE360 is therefore part of a wider proposition. If we want a more productive Nigeria, we must deliberately build more productive Nigerian organisations.

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Stronger organisations create better jobs, use resources more efficiently, develop people more effectively, serve customers better and create greater economic value.

From Organisational Productivity to National Prosperity

Nigeria does not lack ambition. We do not lack entrepreneurs. We do not lack intelligence. We certainly do not lack hardworking people.

Our deeper challenge is to create organisations and institutions capable of converting these strengths into sustained productivity.

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For too long, one measure of Nigerian ingenuity has been our ability to succeed despite difficult systems.

There is something admirable about that resilience, but resilience should not become an excuse for inefficient systems.

We should aspire to a Nigeria where systems release human potential rather than consume so much of it.

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Imagine organisations where talented people do not spend much of their energy navigating avoidable obstacles.

Imagine decisions informed by evidence, investment in people producing measurable improvement, technology simplifying processes, institutions learning from experience and businesses scaling because their systems can scale with them.

This is the journey I believe Nigeria now needs to pursue:

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Productive Chaos → Productive Coordination → Productive Transformation → National Prosperity.

Nigeria has already demonstrated that its people can produce extraordinary results in difficult circumstances. The next chapter of our development should be even more ambitious.

Also read: 19 Nigerian Oil Licences Face 2026 Expiry

We must build organisations and institutions capable of releasing the extraordinary potential already present in our people. That is the productivity conversation Nigeria now needs.

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