Nigeria’s oil sector loses N1.76tn after missing OPEC production quota from Jan 2025 to Jan 2026, highlighting structural and operational challenges

Nigeria’s oil sector lost an estimated N1.76tn in potential crude revenue after failing to meet the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) production quota between January 2025 and January 2026.

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Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission revealed that crude output fell below the OPEC-set target of 1.5 million barrels per day in nine months of 2025 and again in January 2026, even as global crude prices remained moderately strong.

While production slightly exceeded the quota in January, June, and July 2025, the remaining months recorded significant shortfalls, with the largest deficit of 110,000 barrels per day in September 2025.

Cumulatively, the net annual production deficit stood at 16.85 million barrels, translating to a lost revenue of about $1.31 billion, or approximately N1.76tn at prevailing exchange rates.

Experts highlighted that the shortfall underscores structural and operational challenges, including security issues in the Niger Delta, infrastructure constraints, and fluctuating efficiency across oil fields.

Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare stressed that improving security, reducing operational disruptions, and fast-tracking regulatory approvals are critical to meeting production targets.

Similarly, Professor Segun Ajibola noted that production depends on technical cooperation with partners, joint ventures, and environmental factors, emphasizing the complexity of Nigeria’s upstream sector.

The new NUPRC Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, pledged to optimise production, expand revenue, and ensure safe, sustainable operations, aligning with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which targets 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030.

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Despite marginal gains in January 2026, with production rising to 1.46 mbpd, Nigeria remains below its OPEC quota for the sixth consecutive month, highlighting ongoing volatility in the oil-dependent economy.