OPEC urges oil investment totalling $18.2tn by 2050 to meet global demand, warning failure to invest risks a future energy crisis and rising instability

OPEC urges oil investment totalling $18.2tn by 2050 to prevent a looming global energy crisis and meet rising demand for petroleum products.

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In its newly released 2025 World Oil Outlook, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has projected that $14.9tn will be needed for upstream oil development alone between 2025 and 2050.

That amounts to $574bn annually, forming the largest share of the total oil-related capital expenditure.

The global oil cartel dismissed claims of peak oil demand, branding such notions as unrealistic and misaligned with current global needs.

It projects oil demand to rise from 103.7 million barrels per day in 2024 to 123 mb/d by 2050.

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said, “There is no peak oil demand on the horizon. Efforts to rapidly phase out fossil fuels are unrealistic and disregard energy security, affordability, and socio-economic realities of billions still lacking basic energy access.”

Of the total investment requirement, upstream will consume $14.9tn, midstream $1.3tn, and downstream $2tn.

The report said the urgency of sustained investment is driven by a surge in energy needs, fuelled by population growth, urbanisation, and new energy-intensive sectors like artificial intelligence.

Urbanisation is expected to climb from 57 per cent in 2024 to 68 per cent by 2050. Africa and Asia will lead this transition, with China’s urban population reaching 80 per cent and India hitting 53 per cent.

“Urbanisation improves energy access and drives industrial growth, especially in economies still battling energy poverty,” the report stated.

North America currently dominates upstream oil spending at $250bn per year due to high development costs.

However, OPEC and its allies under the Declaration of Cooperation are expected to take a larger share of global upstream investment by 2050, rising from 25 per cent to 40 per cent of global capital spend.

Annual upstream investment by the DoC is forecast to double from $120bn to nearly $240bn. Other non-OPEC producers, excluding the US and Canada, will also see spending increase from $90bn to nearly $150bn annually.

OPEC’s forecast sharply contradicts projections from the International Energy Agency, which suggests oil demand will peak before 2030 due to clean energy adoption.

Al Ghais criticised such predictions, calling them politically driven and ignorant of the energy struggles of the Global South.

“Many of the net-zero emission timelines have little regard for the feasibility or impact on developing economies. It has become increasingly clear that the idea of swiftly phasing out oil and gas is not only unworkable, it is a fantasy,” he said.

As global capital shifts to meet this demand, oil-rich nations like Nigeria are seeking to take advantage.

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With 37 billion barrels of crude reserves and over 200 trillion cubic feet of gas, Nigeria is betting on long-term oil relevance to attract fresh investment into its energy sector.